PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Mr.Phips]

Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?

Just some quick napkin math/approximations here:

Obama lost PA-18 by 11 in 2008. Judging by the swing map for 2008 and the population distribution of the district, I'd say Kerry lost by roughly the same amount. The 2004 swing map suggests that Kerry did anywhere from 1-5 points worse than Gore, so that leads me to believe that Bush won PA-18 in 2000 by around 5 points.

These numbers are pretty close to the truth.  If you go back to the 1980s, Dukakis and even Mondale would have won this district.

[Mr.Phips]

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?

He's from the wrong part of the state.

[Mr.Phips]

This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

Hmm, I wonder if this paper endorsed Dem control of House in 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 out of fear of impeachment of a Dem President.  Somehow I doubt it.