PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Truvinny]

Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

[Truvinny]

I agree, and welcome to Atlas!

Thank you PittsburghSteel and Arch!

[Truvinny]

Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

Hi man, and welcome! Two questions: Do you have any authority for the idea more voters from the out of power party tend to show up for special elections? I mean, it FEELS like a correct statement in my gut, much like the general trend for off-year elections in general, but I was just wondering.

Secondly, have the polls really turned towards Lamb? They seem to have all been in a low to mid single digit Saccone lead. The most recent showing Saccone up by 6 is actually an improvement on the last two polls showing him up only 3 points each. Caveat for MoE and all that acknowledged, but I'm wondering if there's some other polls you're aware of, even via word of mouth from people in the respective campaigns?

Just looking for every crumb of info on this really interesting race. Again, welcome!

Hi and thank you! I'm mostly basing the SE turnout thing on races like the most recent Alabama election and the Massachusetts election in 2010. My comment about the polling numbers was more meant to reflect the general trend over the last few months. I'm not an expert by any means but I think there's reason to be optimistic.

[Truvinny]

I keep hearing that turnout is high all accross the district. According to Monmouth, that bodes very well for Lamb.

I can't help but get a bit of a GA-06 flasback though. Yes high turnout favored Lamb in Monmouth but that is 1 poll

Days before election:
Ossoff- losing momentum
Lamb- gaining momentum
I don't see a similarity.

This.

[Truvinny]

Turnout in Westmoreland county might be slipping:

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/973663921952448513

Westmoreland is heavily Republican.

[Truvinny]

I should be studying for a quiz tomorrow...

if Lamb wins, skip school in elation. If he loses, skip school in depression. IMO.

I'm on spring break so neither are an option. LMAO

[Truvinny]

I know this isn't relevant to the topic at hand, but why is the site an hr behind?

DST.

anyway to fix that?

Go to "Profile" then click "Look and Layout" you can change the time zone

[Truvinny]

This is very exciting but not exciting at the same time.

As a political junkie, I'm loving the national implications and the expert analysis.

As a Pennsylvanian, I realize this seat isn't going to be around in January and there's a good chance both of these guys might be heading to Capitol Hill from different districts.

[Truvinny]

"Saccone? Never heard or met the guy"

-Trump

"Maybe I made a mistake. Might have."

[Truvinny]

Early votes dump first. Makes sense Lamb would lead in these given the enthusiasm gap. Still a tossup. No clear winner or favorite.

PA special elections have no early vote, I'm pretty sure.

PA elections in general have no early vote.

[Truvinny]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/973720687218188291

Ho Lee Shet.

[Truvinny]

Hey PittsburghSteele you're the local, what do these #'s say?

I'm local too. It looks good for Lamb.

[Truvinny]

CNN just said that turnout in Allegheny was very high with long lines, and people still in line when the polls closed.

Can you still vote if you're in line when the polls close?

[Truvinny]

This is gonna give me a heart attack.

Even worse than the Super Bowl

[Truvinny]

Has anyone called the race yet?

[Truvinny]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/973742716122169344

So basically we're getting a recount here.

Saccone (or Lamb) can find three voters in each county willing to sign an affidavit.

Doesn't there have to be a maximum percentage difference for a recount to happen?

[Truvinny]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/973742716122169344

So basically we're getting a recount here.

Saccone (or Lamb) can find three voters in each county willing to sign an affidavit.

Doesn't there have to be a minimum percentage difference for a recount to happen?

no there's no mandatory recount cuz this isn't a statewide race

No, I meant maximum. Like would they even do a recount if the difference was too big.

[Truvinny]

Libertarian candidate might end up being the margin

[Truvinny]

Drew Miller is such a savage on twitter

His bio: "offering voters a fiscally conservative / socially inclusive choice."

Translation: "I love weed, but f**k poor people."

The Libertarian Party needs to be cancelled.

[Truvinny]

Drew Miller is such a savage on twitter

His bio: "offering voters a fiscally conservative / socially inclusive choice."

Translation: "I love weed, but f**k poor people."

The Libertarian Party needs to be cancelled.

Stop it! DREW MILLER is the man of the hour!

He looks like a peak dudebro. Probably encapsulates the average libertarian perfectly.

[Truvinny]

LOL @ the Republican spin that "Conor Lamb is practically a Republican".

Are we going to hear that excuse on November 6 too? "The Democrats may have retaken the House, but many of these newly elected Democratic representatives are in fact true conservatives and closet Trumpists!"

Had someone tell me that Randy Bryce was probably going to be a Blue Dog Trump supporter because he's a pro-union candidate.