PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[DemocraticKing]

Emerson College: Lamb +3.

Amazing news. It is Emerson, but it follows the trend we have been seeing.

[DemocraticKing]

Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf

Still a tossup with hints of a Lamb advantage maybe. Down 3 points in Gravis, up 1 in Emerson.

Lamb losing by three bodes very well for Democrats in 2018 btw, including a PA-17 Lamb. Him winning would be nice of course.

[DemocraticKing]

Gravis January 3-5 - Saccone- 46% l Lamb- 34% l 20% Undecided

Gravis February 13-15 - Saccone- 45% l Lamb- 40% l 15% Undecided

Gravis March 1-5- Saccone- 45% l Lamb- 42% l 13% Undecided

We can see a clear trend here, Lamb has been taking the lion's share of the undecideds, and Saccone looks stuck at 45%. Another key note, none of these polls have included the Libertarian, who could pull away Saccone votes.

[DemocraticKing]

This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

This newspaper endorsement will shift the race approximately 0.02% to Rick Saccone. Nobody hears about newspaper endorsements, and even less people care.

Not to mention, the local paper for Greene County and those other ancestrally Dem counties actually endorsed Lamb.

[DemocraticKing]

GOP dirty tricks

https://www.twitter.com/sb93108/status/973626868174917635

Counties conduct elections in the USA. Basically all county offices in Washington County are held by Democrats.

Important if true

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/973391915369533441

[DemocraticKing]

I feel confident on Lamb, but this is a tiny bit worrying (and interesting) from a just-published Washington Post article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-pennsylvanias-trump-country-a-surging-democrat-takes-house-race-down-to-the-wire/2018/03/13/d9192ccb-eba1-4cdc-bda3-dffab0ebaddc_story.html?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&utm_term=.6e6aa7fb5458

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We knew that already, but insiders said newer overnight numbers were bad for Saccone.

[DemocraticKing]

So. Would Gina Cerilli have been a better candidate? Or would she not have prevailed without Lamb's Allegheny hometown advantage?

She would have lost this I think, but she can win the new PA-14 now that that river region is included.