PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 199864 times)
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« on: March 13, 2018, 09:34:31 PM »

For the record, the official Bush margin of victory in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes. What are we thinking, closer than that?

I say 200 pre-recount, 600 post recount. Both are +Lamb.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2018, 09:43:37 PM »

I drove through this district a couple times in September 2016 and there were Trump signs everywhere. This is a good sign for 2018/2020.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 09:57:50 PM »

If exactly 99% left in Westmoreland, and % stays the same, Saccone wins by 8 votes

8 votes seems well within the margin of error for what we can expect from those counties.

getting ready to wew to my lad
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 10:04:31 PM »


wait until the rest of the absentees come in
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 10:05:38 PM »


absentee dump from Allegheny
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:31 PM »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 10:15:15 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

Yeah it's the rust belt... a very elastic area if the country. Dems will continue on with "muh rich Atlanta suburbs" strategy o/c.

Huh

Dems win a seat in a competitive area where they performed poorly in 2016 and your reaction is that they're not going to follow through in a GE?

Besides, the fact that Dems won this seat when Trump has tailored parts of his presidency specifically to curry favor with this demographic region is bad news for Republicans nationwide next year.


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

You think he wins absentees in Greene 75-25??

ah I thought he won regular votes there by a similar margin but it looks like he only won there like 58-41... okay yeah I feel pretty good calling this one Smiley
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 10:18:56 PM »

Collier district 5 looks very out of place. Plus it swung to Saccone while everything around swung towards Lamb...

It's very republican - Trump +39 district. Looks fine to me. Don't know why NYT says it swung to Saccone.

But if you see something sketchy, atlas people, please say something. I'm poring through the outlier looking precincts to see if anything looks weird.

wulfric is on it, I'm sure
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,460
United States


« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 10:29:57 PM »

Beginning to notice a pattern among winning Democratic candidates but I can't put my finger on it.




yeah I love me a man who wears a good collared shirt!
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