PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Bidenworth2020]

congrats senatour/ gov elect saccone! tho

[Bidenworth2020]

This will the huge wave.

[Bidenworth2020]

Another new ad by Lamb:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5hAlQ2cPQ0

wow. great ad

[Bidenworth2020]

Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.

>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes

[Bidenworth2020]

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.

[Bidenworth2020]

bumping my prediction up to 54-44 sacone, as republicans are bringing in millions

[Bidenworth2020]

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.

a guy has gotta do what he has gotta do to win I guess

[Bidenworth2020]

Gravis poll drops today.

9 point margin for Saccone. Calling it.

[Bidenworth2020]

This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly.

the "many Republicans think Saccone will ultimately prevail" part makes it so only a Saccone 5%+ win or so would be an overperformnce

[Bidenworth2020]

The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart

What's the needle?

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump just said he and Saccone looks better than Connor Lamb.

LMFAO

[Bidenworth2020]

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.

How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?

[Bidenworth2020]

This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html

In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.

[Bidenworth2020]

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and Saccone decides to run again in PA-14?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene/Westmoreland counties plus Fayette County.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?

Tossup with cerilli

[Bidenworth2020]

It’s over folks. Democrats don’t turn out when it snows.

Saccone + 10

Agree reps do turn out

[Bidenworth2020]

I have followed this race remarkably little because I just assumed it would be a semi-underwhelming but ultimately comfortable win for Saccone.  It's clear that it will be close, though, so I'm just hoping for the best.  Also really waiting for TN SD 14.

It’ll be close, but not a nail biter.

in favor of who?

[Bidenworth2020]

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.

nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny

[Bidenworth2020]

53% lamb wtf

[Bidenworth2020]

how will the rest of Washington county vote god damnit??

[Bidenworth2020]

Again, Saccone will make up those 750 votes in the remaining Washington county precincts. Absentees will decide the race.

so that probably means a lamb win.

[Bidenworth2020]

Which precincts are left?

2 in westmoreland

[Bidenworth2020]

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...

I found out here of all places.

MSNBC via Brian Williams.

BBC notification on my phone.

Also found out here. RIP a true inspiration and one-of-a-kind example of the immense capabilities of the human mind.

[Bidenworth2020]

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?

52-53

[Bidenworth2020]

Everyone, apologize for all of the Ossoff comparisons.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is Westmoreland ansentee still out?