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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127672 times)
#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« on: January 18, 2018, 08:31:10 pm »

congrats senatour/ gov elect saccone! tho
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2018, 12:33:21 am »

This will the huge wave.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2018, 05:40:49 pm »

wow. great ad
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2018, 10:54:58 pm »

Letís say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.
>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2018, 07:12:15 pm »

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2018, 12:30:14 pm »

bumping my prediction up to 54-44 sacone, as republicans are bringing in millions
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2018, 04:01:22 pm »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.
a guy has gotta do what he has gotta do to win I guess
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2018, 11:05:28 am »

9 point margin for Saccone. Calling it.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2018, 10:54:33 pm »


Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly.
the "many Republicans think Saccone will ultimately prevail" part makes it so only a Saccone 5%+ win or so would be an overperformnce
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2018, 02:07:30 pm »

The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart
What's the needle?
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2018, 07:46:00 pm »

Trump just said he and Saccone looks better than Connor Lamb.
LMFAO
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2018, 05:19:37 pm »

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.
How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2018, 07:17:47 pm »

This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html
In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2018, 09:32:40 pm »

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and Saccone decides to run again in PA-14?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene/Westmoreland counties plus Fayette County.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?
Tossup with cerilli
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 02:04:26 pm »

Itís over folks. Democrats donít turn out when it snows.

Saccone + 10
Agree reps do turn out
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 05:58:43 pm »

I have followed this race remarkably little because I just assumed it would be a semi-underwhelming but ultimately comfortable win for Saccone.  It's clear that it will be close, though, so I'm just hoping for the best.  Also really waiting for TN SD 14.

Itíll be close, but not a nail biter.
in favor of who?
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 07:27:21 pm »

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2018, 08:10:26 pm »

53% lamb wtf
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2018, 09:19:25 pm »

how will the rest of Washington county vote god damnit?Huh?
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2018, 09:47:06 pm »

Again, Saccone will make up those 750 votes in the remaining Washington county precincts. Absentees will decide the race.
so that probably means a lamb win.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2018, 09:56:53 pm »

2 in westmoreland
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:38 pm »


Also found out here. RIP a true inspiration and one-of-a-kind example of the immense capabilities of the human mind.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:33 pm »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?
52-53
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2018, 11:36:04 pm »

Everyone, apologize for all of the Ossoff comparisons.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,003
United States


« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2018, 12:37:24 am »

Is Westmoreland ansentee still out?
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