PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[cvparty]

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.

nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny

not really, depends on turnout

[cvparty]

.4% lead with 6% left

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/973742716122169344

So basically we're getting a recount here.

Saccone (or Lamb) can find three voters in each county willing to sign an affidavit.

Doesn't there have to be a minimum percentage difference for a recount to happen?

no there's no mandatory recount cuz this isn't a statewide race, you need to get a petition with 3 voters from each precinct

[cvparty]

He did it. I doubted it at the end, but he did it. It feels damn good.

GASP REALLY

[cvparty]

Just realized Lamb will be second youngest person in Congress, he's only 5 days older than Elise Stefanik.

He's five days younger isn't he? Stefanik was born on July 2nd and Lamb was born on June 27th.

Nope.  Earlier birthday = older.

Oh my god I'm an idiot.

omggg