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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127464 times)
cvparty
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,770
United States


P
« on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:03 pm »

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny
not really, depends on turnout
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cvparty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


P
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2018, 08:54:04 pm »

.4% lead with 6% left Confused
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cvparty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


P
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 09:20:07 pm »


So basically we're getting a recount here.

Saccone (or Lamb) can find three voters in each county willing to sign an affidavit.

Doesn't there have to be a minimum percentage difference for a recount to happen?
no there's no mandatory recount cuz this isn't a statewide race, you need to get a petition with 3 voters from each precinct
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cvparty
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,770
United States


P
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 10:46:04 pm »

He did it. I doubted it at the end, but he did it. It feels damn good.
GASP REALLY
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cvparty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


P
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2018, 06:39:11 pm »

Just realized Lamb will be second youngest person in Congress, he's only 5 days older than Elise Stefanik.
He's five days younger isn't he? Stefanik was born on July 2nd and Lamb was born on June 27th.

Nope.  Earlier birthday = older.
Oh my god I'm an idiot.
omggg
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