PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Hoosier_Nick]

Good poll. Not only does it show a massive shift given how much Trump won the district by, it shows that if turnout favors Democrats enough (which evidence shows there is a good chance of happening), this district is in play. At this point I'd be really surprised if Saccone wins by more than 10, in part since that hasn't even been done by a single other special federal election. Still pinning this race at Lean R, though much closer to Likely R than Tilt R. Democrats need to hope this district stays under the radar like SC-05 or KS-04 for a close result and hope that it's not a repeat of GA-06. 

[Hoosier_Nick]

This is a good profile on Lamb:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/amp/story/2018/02/18/conor-lamb-pennsylvania-special-election-profile-217018

[Hoosier_Nick]

This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

That was actually fantastic. Honestly, I think this is his best all election.

[Hoosier_Nick]

This is Washington county. Anyone have total registered voters and past election results for this precinct?

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/973676748482187264

Clinton lost by 30 and Obama lost by 22. Benchmark model says Lamb will need to only lose by 9 to win (in a universal swing ofc)

[Hoosier_Nick]

Also, somebody posted this early, but it's super handy so I'll recommend it again: Benchmarks for Lamb per precinct:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TTQPU3facejYEkSyE7nzCclRHML56jQhM4hOGit87sE/htmlview#