PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197905 times)
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hofoid
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« on: February 16, 2018, 06:24:53 PM »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2018, 12:04:45 PM »

See, Lamb is sucha. flip flopper, ridiculous.
Way to completely shatter any progress he made from that smart move he made in a tough district.
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hofoid
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2018, 12:44:18 PM »

Does meeting with a group automatically change all of your policy position to match the ones they support? I am not sure that is how it works.
Optics is everything. I'm sure no GOP candidate in a similar situation (Let's say a D+11) should line up to appear with Milo Yiannopoulos.
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hofoid
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2018, 08:25:37 PM »

Saccone really needs to get off mentioning Pelosi every single time. The ones who would hate anyone for siding with her are already voting for him. The swing voter won't care.
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hofoid
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2018, 03:18:02 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

Once again, a Dem candidate is exposed as a corporate shill. News at 10.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 11:04:14 AM »

Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.




Why? I thought all these Pittsburgh steelworkers would love it.
Yep, great FF move for Saccone. He had shown he puts into priority people's livelihoods in this district. Lamb's turn.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 01:28:03 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.
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hofoid
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2018, 01:35:23 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2018, 01:37:02 PM »

Pretty sure Casey won this district in 2012, so not sure how it's impressive for him to be -7 in a supposed "blue wave" year.
Are we really surprised after Casey backstabbed Western Penn. on guns?
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2018, 01:41:45 PM »

I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?
Considering that districts like the 18th are his biggest sources of support in the state , that is an unforced error which helps the Dems, I admit. (I'm not always doom and gloom.)
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2018, 01:46:50 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

It’s not that simple. I’m pretty sure many people in Massachusetts approved of Obama in 2010 and didn’t just switch to Martha Coakley from Scott Brown after he campaigned for her.
See, I might buy that argument if the 18th isn't literally the place that swung heavily toward Trump 2 years ago. It was conceivable that Brown tapped into the growing discontent among working class Catholics throughout the state that swung from Kerry to McCain just 2 years before in '08.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2018, 01:47:32 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Honestly, it could be said that Saccone is in trouble if he's only statistically tied with Lamb while Trump is six points above water in a district he won by double digits. Not saying that Lamb is the favorite right now as we've seen something similar happen in GA-06, but the race is definitely pure tossup at the moment.
That speaks to an enthusiasm issue, not that the votes for Saccone aren't there.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2018, 02:14:16 PM »

Last I checked, Saccone isn't a pedophile...you know, the kind of thing that would have folks cross party lines by a huge amount to overcome partisan lean/DJT approval rating.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2018, 07:57:25 PM »

Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.
FF Move. If I were in this district, my vote for him would have been secured.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2018, 05:19:29 PM »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Let's be real, this district's GOP voters have never voted on economics outside of tariff related issues. This is the wisest choice by the NRCC.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2018, 05:24:29 PM »


There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
The Dems have been anti-cop (a union-heavy lean D demographic before) and soft on crime since about 7 years ago. It alienates white working class much more than other demographics. It's not so much desperation, but an unforced error on the Dems' side.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2018, 05:32:55 PM »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2018, 05:56:19 PM »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  Grumpy

Hofoid constantly goes on about democrats talk too much about PoC, talks about how miniorities will always vote dem anyways (even though Hillary doing as well among blacks as Obama did would have given her a 328 electoral college victory), and constantly seems to disregard miniority struggles. I wouldn't take their posts about race particularly seriously.

Most progressives on this forum are generally good about combining economic justice and social justice, but this new user seems to barely care about social justice because we need to focus on muh "WWC" or something.

So, being concerned about lives (many of whom are blacks and other ethnic minorities) being taken by gang violence and other criminal activities is now considered "disregarding minority struggles". Got it.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2018, 12:35:26 PM »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.
Be sure to warn everyone of the rain in Pittsburgh.
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