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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127471 times)
Everything Burns...
jdb
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« on: January 18, 2018, 09:44:59 am »

It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

Or they’ll just break it Tongue
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2018, 07:42:42 am »


This is truly the Troll 2 of attack ads.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2018, 09:54:38 am »

If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment



Gotta disagree with you there, I think it'll be:

1. National environment (without a historically toxic environment across the board for Republicans, this seat wouldn't even be remotely competitive even with everything else; I'd argue that this is far and away the most important factor.  Honestly, Saccone should be winning by like 15% without breaking a sweat even in a Democratic-leaning national environment, IIRC Trump won this decidedly WWC district by about 20 points in 2016)

2. Saccone's general incompetence as a candidate is what may in the context of the national environment may be what pushes Lamb just over the finish line, but the national environment is what made this race close enough that its not inconcievable for that 1-2% Saccone doesn't get due to lazyness/incompetance to be the deciding factor.  Anything within single-digits here should worry Republicans and if Saccone wins by 5% or less, then that's still a disaster for the GOP in terms of what it suggests about the midterms.  It'd certainly indicate that the "Trump/GOP rebound" narrative is...well...completely baseless.  This isn't like the Alabama Senate race where Republicans can just write it off as being about the candidate if they lose.  Saccone didn't help, but any Republicans who think this seat is in play primarily b/c of candidate quality are only fooling themselves.  

3. Well...actually that's about it.  I disagree pretty strongly with you about Lamb being some sort of exceptional candidate.  I mean, he's not bad or anything, but he's also nothing to write home about; he's simply an average candidate running a reasonably competent campaign.  Honestly, he's not even the strongest Democratic candidate in the district and IIRC was like the 4th or 5th (might've even been 6th) choice to run here.  Lamb only became the party's choice after all the top-tier recruits said they weren't interested and there's a reason for that: he's not a top-tier candidate (Lamb is on the weaker end of generic b-list, but Saccone is running such a lazy campaign that he makes Lamb look like a first-rate candidate by comparison).  Again, there's nothing wrong with Lamb per-say, but someone like Brandon Neuman or Matt H. Smith would have been a much stronger recruit.  

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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2018, 03:49:12 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
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jdb
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2018, 03:52:39 pm »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.

Eh, that won’t hurt him at all in this district sadly.
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jdb
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2018, 08:00:33 pm »

I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.

He already got his ego burned twice in Alabama.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2018, 07:49:38 am »

If Saccone wins the special, would he win the new PA-14 regular election?

As long as Brandon Neumann doesn’t run (and he won’t).  The real danger for Saccone is the Republican primary imo.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2018, 09:46:54 am »

I wonder if anyone actually thinks Lamb would vote against Pelosi for speaker if it came down to his vote Tongue
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