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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127461 times)
President Pericles
Pericles
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Posts: 9,097

« on: February 01, 2018, 10:01:40 pm »

It's Alabama all over again

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How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?

Saccone is going to win easily.

Like your racist friend Ed Gillespie and your favorite pedophile Roy Moore. Lmao. Lamb's probably winning now.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2018, 10:34:05 pm »

Obama was young and inexperienced. In today's politics inexperience is electable.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2018, 02:23:07 pm »

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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Posts: 9,097

« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2018, 02:15:16 pm »

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President Pericles
Pericles
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Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 9,097

« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2018, 01:04:18 pm »

I thought this was probably going to end up as a narrow Saccone win, but now it's looking like Lamb will actually win it. I'd rate it 53.5% chance of a Saccone win, 46.5% chance if a Lamb win, could go either way.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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Posts: 9,097

« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2018, 09:47:37 pm »

Delete your account.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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Posts: 9,097

« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2018, 09:54:03 pm »

It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.

Together though they are-judging by historical precedent-a reliable indicator of a blue wave.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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Posts: 9,097

« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 01:44:04 pm »

Part of me is worried that the D wave narrative will become the consensus if Lamb wins. It's true, but I'd prefer Republicans and the pundits to be surprised when the wave hits. Though otoh Lamb may spur some more GOP retirements so that'd be good.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 01:56:15 pm »

Part of me is worried that the D wave narrative will become the consensus if Lamb wins. It's true, but I'd prefer Republicans and the pundits to be surprised when the wave hits. Though otoh Lamb may spur some more GOP retirements so that'd be good.
The D wave narrative should have become the consensus after Alabama. It didnít. And I guarantee you many right leaning pundits will quickly write off Sacconeís loss should he lose.

I guess the situation will remain largely unchanged. Good.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 07:45:34 pm »

That needle is crazy, it's swinging literally right before my eyes.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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Posts: 9,097

« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2018, 01:22:26 pm »

At this point, I'd say the House is all but a done deal for the Democrats. The fact that Republicans lost this race despite nonstop ads screaming "NANCY PELOSI!!!!!!" means that she is no longer an anchor around Democratic candidates' necks that she used to be.

Admittedly Lamb made a great move in opposing Pelosi.
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