PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Devout Centrist]

Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.

[Devout Centrist]

But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.

I really disagree with this.

Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?

[Devout Centrist]

It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

Seems like fairly boilerplate talking points for a historically Republican district.

[Devout Centrist]

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

[Devout Centrist]

Well...I can actually see Lamb winning by 3 or 4 points. I think Monmouth has been a little off in their recent polling.

[Devout Centrist]

Part of me is worried that the D wave narrative will become the consensus if Lamb wins. It's true, but I'd prefer Republicans and the pundits to be surprised when the wave hits. Though otoh Lamb may spur some more GOP retirements so that'd be good.

The D wave narrative should have become the consensus after Alabama. It didn’t. And I guarantee you many right leaning pundits will quickly write off Saccone’s loss should he lose.

[Devout Centrist]

Well, if Lamb goes on to represent the 17th, I will guarantee you that he'll vote for Pelosi.