PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[OneJ]

We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.

[OneJ]

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

Sounds like Roy Moore's type

Didn't see that one coming.

[OneJ]

Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Lol. Look at the comments. Even they are not putting up with this and know how terrible it is.

[OneJ]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.

There were socially conservative Democrats who were anti-abortion, I'm pretty sure of, who didn't even reach 40% across the South while Jones was already hitting 40% in the polls before Moore got exposed for the awful human being that he was (and still is).

[OneJ]

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Honestly, it could be said that Saccone is in trouble if he's only statistically tied with Lamb while Trump is six points above water in a district he won by double digits. Not saying that Lamb is the favorite right now as we've seen something similar happen in GA-06, but the race is definitely pure tossup at the moment.

[OneJ]

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

This is exactly why I'm not getting too excited.

[OneJ]

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Proof, please. Oh wait...

[OneJ]

What's funny to me was that before all this went down, many of them thought he really was Nancy's little lamb taking liberal views from San Francisco.