PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197863 times)
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« on: January 07, 2018, 08:41:52 PM »

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2018, 10:24:02 PM »

This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

Pretty sure that Harry Reid has a machine in his basement that can pump out young, charismatic, good-looking candidates on demand for tough races (Kander, O'Rourke, Perriello, Lamb)
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2018, 11:35:51 PM »


This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2018, 08:13:46 AM »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

The power of wishful thinking.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2018, 04:57:15 PM »

Saccone is probably narrowly favored to win, but this special doesn't feel that important. There's not going to be any substantive impact if the Democratic minority grows by one before November, and Lamb will be running in PA-17 regardless of whether he wins this race.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 01:23:19 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2018, 01:28:16 PM by Doctor Imperialism »

New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

@brd_polling
BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%

I don't recognize the pollster, though. They seem new.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 02:24:51 PM »

Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2018, 07:19:13 PM »

Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.

The worst consequence of a Lamb loss will be all the smug RED WAVE INCOMING posts, even if Saccone barely ekes out a win.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2018, 01:42:16 PM »

There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2018, 08:29:48 PM »


I guess he doesn't get that his party is trying to play the expectations game?
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2018, 10:50:48 AM »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 11:00:47 AM »

Maybe we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves? This is still a Trump +20 district, and the polling we've got indicates that this race is Lean Lamb at best.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 12:37:53 PM »

Republican insiders expect Conor Lamb to win tonight.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/03/13/district-18-Special-election-pennsylvania-house-Conor-Lamb-Rick-Saccone-congress-tim-murphy/stories/201803120128



I'm not sure if Politico understands that it's in the interest of the GOP to downplay Saccone's chances as much as possible, regardless of whether they think he'll win
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 02:06:25 PM »

It’s over folks. Democrats don’t turn out when it snows.

Saccone + 10

Rick Snowcone has done it again
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 04:35:59 PM »

What time do polls close? 7?
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 07:23:43 PM »

I love it when they eat their own.



At least Walsh has been consistent in pointing out how stupid some Republicans can be in elections, campaigns, and certain policies

Glass houses.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 08:03:09 PM »

Holy sh**t, guys, the needle isn't everything.

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?


Yeah, for a while.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2018, 08:05:29 PM »

Quote
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true if big
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2018, 08:31:37 PM »

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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2018, 08:35:30 PM »

Saccone real only hope left is what is left of Washington is a lot more pro-GOP than what is counted so far.

This is over.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:04 PM »

So how was DDHQ able to get Westmoreland precinct data when the NYT wasn't? Bizarre.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2018, 09:32:10 PM »

For the record, the official Bush margin of victory in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes. What are we thinking, closer than that?

I mean, this district is a lot smaller than Florida.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2018, 09:43:28 PM »

I'm not convinced Lamb has this.  He's only 585 votes ahead with 97 percent of the vote in.

Saccone was a really horrible candidate, and Lamb was a really good one.  The race was not overly nationalized, and this area is more ancestrally Democratic than the 2016 results show.  

Yikes. The delusion is strong.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2018, 09:51:27 PM »

755 votes. I don't think Rick can make up raw vote and absentee should boost Lamb around midnight  

Not so sure. Most of the remaining precincts are in Peters, where there are six precincts remaining. It's been strong for Saccone, with his average net votes per precinct around 120 or so. It will be very close before absentees.

The other two Washington county precincts are one in North Strabane, where Saccone should net around 50 votes or so, and one in Chartiers, which should be around a wash.



If Saccone comes out on top tonight but absentees give the victory to Lamb, the meltdown on the right is going to be epic.

Calling it now: Trump is going to imply that the absentee vote was somehow rigged.
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #24 on: March 15, 2018, 01:18:12 PM »

Apologies if this has been posted already and I missed it, but PPP did "exit polls" of this race.

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lol
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