PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[socaldem]

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and runs in PA-17, as expected....

What if Saccone decides to run again in PA-14 on the basis that he won the territory in the new PA-14 that overlaps with the old PA-18?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP in 2018?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene, all of historically Democratic Fayette County and some Dem pockets of Westmoreland.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb (a la Ojeda) and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?

[socaldem]

So. Would Gina Cerilli have been a better candidate? Or would she not have prevailed without Lamb's Allegheny hometown advantage?

She would have lost this I think, but she can win the new PA-14 now that that river region is included.

A total nightmare for the GOP.

I think Conor Lamb is favored in the new PA-17. He will clean up in the territory from the old PA-17 and PA-18 in the new district. Meanwhile, he is fundraising dynamite ant the national GOP won't have the resources to save Rothfus. The closeness of the race only makes Lamb that much more celebrated.

Meanwhile, Saccone came so very close that he'll be able to clear the field in PA-14. The problem is the new district is missing his home base in Southern Allegheny County... Saccone is such a miserable fundraiser and is so gaffe-prone and already has high negatives. The GOP won't be able to spend $6 million tarring her...

Really hoping Gina Cerilli gets in. Please, please, please. It would still Lean Republican, though.

Dems really need to toss Pelosi. We need a leader that can help us make more inroads into the traditionally Dem areas....

[socaldem]

So Hillary did better in OH-12 than in PA-18 (though the rural territory has considerably fewer ancestral Dems)... Could Dems play here, too?

What about in Arizona, where Hillary did a bit worse than in PA-18?

I think OH-12 really has some interesting potential because Dems could potentially drive up numbers tih the base in Cleveland and Mansfield while holding GOP margins down in the Delaware and Muskegon.

Arizona seems like a stretch but the candidate isn't great.