PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Young Conservative]

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

[Young Conservative]

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Congressman Ossof agrees.

[Young Conservative]

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.

Many rural Virginia counties in the west have lost population since then.

Anyway, to LL’s point, Gillespie got the most votes ever recorded for a Republican gubernatorial nominee, even outpacing Bob McDonnell’s showing from when he won by 19 points. Sure, the overall state has grown much during the last eight years, but that would also suggest he did a decent job of getting his people out to vote.

No, it wouldn't. Regardless, there are no parallels between Gillespie and Saccone or Lamb and Northam or Virginia and PA.

[Young Conservative]

Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M

It seems like a stretch to call being an Assistant State Attorney "working in the Obama administration."

[Young Conservative]

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

[Young Conservative]

If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment

[Young Conservative]

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Jumping the gun is a favorite pastime of atlas

[Young Conservative]

Early votes dump first. Makes sense Lamb would lead in these given the enthusiasm gap. Still a tossup. No clear winner or favorite.