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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127642 times)
cp
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,166
United Kingdom


« on: March 12, 2018, 04:58:50 pm »

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).

Great numbers for Lamb! *fingers crossed*

In the spirit of genuine debate (rather than concern trolling), if it turns out that Saccone somehow did pull out a victory tomorrow, how exactly would this happen? Or put another way, would would be the cause of the kind of polling error that would lead to Lamb being overestimated in this way?
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cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2018, 03:16:05 am »

So the big day is finally here!

A couple of logistical questions:

1. Will there be an exit poll?

2. Related to that, are there any sources for information pre-8pm that aren't completely hackish/untrustworthy?

3. What are the best sites for following the tally?

4. How long will it take to count the ballots? Or put another way, at what percentage of the ballot count can we expect a definitive result?

FWIW, my money is on Lamb by 2.5.
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cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United Kingdom


« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 08:50:55 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.
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cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United Kingdom


« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 02:18:37 pm »

Itís over folks. Democrats donít turn out when it snows.

Saccone + 10

And here I thought Democrats *were* the snowflakes Wink
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