PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 201435 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« on: March 12, 2018, 04:33:01 PM »
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2018, 03:04:12 PM »
Quote from: cp on March 13, 2018, 02:18:37 PM
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on March 13, 2018, 01:56:43 PM
It’s over folks. Democrats don’t turn out when it snows.

Saccone + 10

And here I thought Democrats *were* the snowflakes Wink

NoVa rain melts snowflakes. Pittsburgh snow makes them multiply.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 07:29:11 PM »
Lamb is ahead of his benchmark in the one precinct that has come in.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 07:31:33 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on March 13, 2018, 07:30:06 PM
Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 07:36:31 PM »
Lamb is a full 22 points ahead of his benchmark in Waynesburg Borough #2. Is there some outstanding vote in that precinct, or is that it?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 07:45:45 PM »
Lamb is on average running 3.7 points ahead of his benchmarks across the precincts that have reported so far.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 07:54:28 PM »
Lamb is still only a point ahead of his benchmarks on average. He's favored, but this is going to be a low-single digit race in all likelihood.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 07:56:47 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 13, 2018, 07:55:40 PM
PA GOP op:

Quote
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Only one Bethel Park precinct has come in.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 08:00:11 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on March 13, 2018, 07:57:02 PM
Why does NYT have Saccone ahead in projection?

My guess is that if relative turnout between urban and rural areas matched 2016, it would be even. Because the precincts that have come in have been predominantly urban, it's probably skewing their model to think turnout is up everywhere. Once A few more rural precincts come in with lower turnout, it will swing in Lamb's favor.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 08:05:20 PM »
Lamb is now only 0.25 points ahead of his benchmarks. :/
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2018, 08:19:39 PM »
The benchmark site is indicating a final margin for Lamb of less than 1%.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 08:24:32 PM »
Lamb now down for the first time on benchmarks - only by 0.08%, but still.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 08:30:14 PM »
Quote from: TheBeardedOne on March 13, 2018, 08:28:11 PM
I’ve been wondering, why are Republican districts/states/counties/etc. on this site colored Blue and Democratic ones are Red?

The site was started before the typical color scheme became standard in 2000. Before that, as in Europe, red was associated with the left and blue with the right. Now we just keep it around for teh lulz.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 08:36:35 PM »
Lamb (barely) back ahead of his benchmarks.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 08:57:31 PM »
If Sacccone is up at the end of the night but Lamb is put over the top on absentee ballots, the reaction from the GOP is going to be apocalyptic - and I can't really blame them.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 09:20:54 PM »
Quote from: 136or142 on March 13, 2018, 09:18:06 PM
Quote from: Next Congressman Conor Lamb on March 13, 2018, 09:16:01 PM
Quote from: Senator #TheShadowyAbyss on March 13, 2018, 09:14:08 PM

So basically we're getting a recount here.

Saccone (or Lamb) can find three voters in each county willing to sign an affidavit.

3 people in each precinct not in each county.

3 people per precinct seems like an exceptionally tall order in just five days - not to mention there are at least two where the vote was 4-0 Saccone.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 09:30:55 PM »
For the record, the official Bush margin of victory in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes. What are we thinking, closer than that?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2018, 10:00:00 PM »
This is pretty much the one time in my life I kind of regret not sending in a few bucks in for all those DNC panic emails.
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