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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127687 times)
libertpaulian
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« on: January 29, 2018, 09:29:05 pm »

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.
If people cared deeply about government shutdowns, Democrats would have retaken Congress in 1996 and would have kept the Senate/retaken the House in 2014.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2018, 09:29:56 pm »
« Edited: January 29, 2018, 10:17:48 pm by libertpaulian »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2018, 08:04:12 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2018, 10:48:08 pm »

Lamb says he's for universal background checks, against raising the age to 21 for buying rifles. #resistance ain't gonna be happy with that.
They should suck it up and be glad he's for something on the gun control agenda.  One slice of bread is better than no bread.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2018, 05:04:30 pm »

I swear to God he better not say anything remotely pro-Life.
He already took care of that issue for you.  He said he wouldn't have voted for the 20-week plus abortion ban.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 07:49:31 pm »

Reverse Ossoff tonight?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 07:54:54 pm »

C'mon, Drew Miller, win one precinct...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 08:02:10 pm »

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 08:07:00 pm »

Saccone.  It's Trumpland.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 08:15:17 pm »

Why isn't NYT showing Westmoreland?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2018, 08:22:21 pm »

Double eu tee eff?!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 08:32:14 pm »

Sacone's lead in Westmoreland is shrinking according to CNN.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 08:43:30 pm »

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.
I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 08:50:27 pm »

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.
I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.
Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 08:52:02 pm »

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.
I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.
Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.

He did in Pennsylvania, including winning PA-18 by a huge margin. You know that's what I'm talking about here.
The demographics for this mid-term are going to be completely different than 2016.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 09:12:43 pm »

There are only 25 precincts!  What's taking so long?!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 09:21:57 pm »

There is simply just not enough votes for Saccone to take the lead.
Do you live in the district?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2018, 09:23:02 pm »

Snowcone picked up more votes
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2018, 09:35:15 pm »

Washington County has officially become the worst.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2018, 10:27:06 pm »

Drew Miller was cheated
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2018, 10:35:29 pm »

I have 3 trials next week that need prepping
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2018, 10:40:35 pm »

He did it. I doubted it at the end, but he did it. It feels damn good.
Oh, you...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2018, 10:57:44 pm »

More
According to a source, one of the outstanding precincts (N. Ligonier, Westmoreland Co.) voted Saccone (R) 479-285. That's about what we expected, and it's consistent w/ Lamb (D) lead holding at around 400-600 votes.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973768397174517760

Lamb lead now down to 653. Probably will end up around 500 +/-100
Ahh, the real LimoLiberal is back!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:23 pm »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...
I found out here of all places.
MSNBC via Brian Williams.
BBC notification on my phone.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2018, 06:49:46 am »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.

No sh**t, Sherlock?

Many independents and Republicans have soured on the national party since Ossoff's race. He'd win narrowly today.
I wonder if Ossoff will run for anything this year.
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