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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127747 times)
marty
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« on: March 12, 2018, 11:55:59 am »

Why is Saccone on the ropes when these pa-18 polls
Show trump around 52% approval in the district?
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marty
boshembechle
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2018, 06:26:35 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?
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marty
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 01:03:03 pm »

Why does it seem like the media is treating this race as "local" whereas they treated ga-6 like a referendum on trump?

Almost all the articles put out recently on this race heavily mention Lamb's "conservative" views on key issues, saccone's bad campaign and corruption ties, but there seems to be less of a desire to connect a lamb victory to a referendum on trump
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marty
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 01:33:02 pm »

Why does it seem like the media is treating this race as "local" whereas they treated ga-6 like a referendum on trump?

Almost all the articles put out recently on this race heavily mention Lamb's "conservative" views on key issues, saccone's bad campaign and corruption ties, but there seems to be less of a desire to connect a lamb victory to a referendum on trump

Hmm. I hadnít gotten that sense. Could be all the Hollywood types stumping in GA-6, which we havenít seen in PA-18.

Maybe I am just reading things wrong, but Lamb just seems less of a national dem than ossof was.
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marty
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 04:27:44 pm »

I am continuously amazed at how many turnout reports twitter gives us for every little election

Sometimes they matter, sometimes not, but i do not remember this in past elections
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marty
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 05:09:18 pm »

Hereís a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a ďbig upsetĒ special election?

Like, letís say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?
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marty
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 05:34:10 pm »

I donít know why, I just canít bring myself to care as much about this race as I did ga 6 or the Kansas race

Maybe itís because there will be another election at end of year in this district, maybe because I like Conor lamb and think he is actually pretty centrist or right leaning

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marty
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 05:45:55 pm »

Canít you just ignore limo?
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marty
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 06:01:29 pm »

Pittsburghsteel, assuming the turnout reports are accurate and lamb wins, congratulations!

It definitely feels good when your candidate wins, especially in your own backyard!

You guys are finally getting to enjoy some election victories after last few years of disappointment

Itís a good feeling, isnít it? Hahaha
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marty
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 09:44:00 pm »

Lost in all of this: monmouth pooped the bed.

their high turnout model (which this race is) is off by labout 5 points.
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marty
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2018, 10:29:48 pm »

Color me stunned. Come November 7, Donald Trump be a lame duck.

Doesn't always end poorly. See: bill clinton 1996.

Will come down to whether dems give him popular legislation to sign or if they try to impeach him with public still skeptical that he warrants that.
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marty
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 10:52:05 pm »

CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.
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marty
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 10:56:04 pm »

CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.

If you directly extrapolate from these results.

Why wouldn't that be a reasonable thing to do? Saccone is a generic R and lamb seems like a typical midwest dem.
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marty
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:24 pm »

congrats to the dems of the board!

I am not upset at all. I like Lamb from the speeches I heard and youtube stuff I watched on him.

Very exciting night!

In the grand scheme of things, this election is pointless, and imo, a waste of money. I know by law there needs to be a special election, but all this money and time for a seat that expires in 8 months...meh.

congrats to all the red avatars.
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marty
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:20 pm »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.
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marty
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:40 pm »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?
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marty
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 11:36:36 pm »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.
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