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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127739 times)
henster
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« on: January 07, 2018, 08:29:27 pm »

Dems may get a swingy seat out of SWPA if the courts strike down the maps, in most cases PA-18 would get redder in a redrawn. But PA-12 could become a pickup opportunity under new lines.
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henster
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2018, 08:13:55 pm »

Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235
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henster
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2018, 10:52:20 pm »


This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.

And Trump is probably coming next week to brag about how great things are..meanwhile close to 400 people will be out of work. Lamb or some group needs to be up on air, where is the small donor $$ for him?
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henster
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2018, 11:27:30 pm »


This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.

And Trump is probably coming next week to brag about how great things are..meanwhile close to 400 people will be out of work. Lamb or some group needs to be up on air, where is the small donor $$ for him?

Lamb needs to air an ad featuring the closing of the mine juxtaposed with Trump's remarks about bringing back coal and how he said there'd be so many coal jobs that miners wouldn't know what to do.

Have to be careful about running too much against Trump in this district. More like 'I'll help these miners find work in green/tech jobs, retraining etc.' 'Revitalize SWPA'. Maybe these people will actually listen now Rs can't blame 'WAR ON COAL'.
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2018, 03:18:10 pm »

Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?
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henster
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2018, 11:29:50 pm »

I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2018, 03:32:57 pm »

Saccone only up 3

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No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.
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henster
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« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2018, 10:43:40 pm »

If Conor Lamb was the candidate in GA-06 he would've won handily, way better in quality. Thinking back I actually think Ossoff was a pretty bad candidate.
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henster
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2018, 07:22:04 pm »

Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k
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henster
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2018, 12:25:29 am »

The ads against Ossoff: he’s young immature, Pelosi puppet, SF values, liberal, doesn’t live in district, lied about national security clearance.

Quist: bad finances, socialist, Pelosi, liberal, gun control

Lamb: Pelosi...?

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henster
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« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2018, 10:23:28 pm »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way he gets past Josh Shapiro.
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henster
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2018, 05:27:37 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2018, 04:16:29 pm »

Even background checks barely passed in NV and lost in Maine, Dems hoping for gains by running hard on gun control will be sorely disappointed.
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2018, 01:59:36 am »

Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.

The difference is that Manchin is an incumbent with a long history with voters. Most voters in WV know Joe over his career has been pro-gun and can forgive him for backing some gun reform measures. Lamb doesn't have that connection with voters he's starting with scratch so its best to stick with the standard position for this type of district.
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2018, 01:51:05 am »


Is there a Mrs. Lamb? Hard to believe he's a bachelor unless..
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henster
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2018, 06:38:41 pm »

GA-06 had 15 polls for the runoff, we've had THREE polls of PA-18 so far.
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henster
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2018, 01:06:35 pm »

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.

Something like this could have HUGE impacts on several other races like influencing Rick Scott on whether he should run.
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henster
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2018, 02:48:07 am »

It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
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henster
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« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2018, 12:09:13 pm »

There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.
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henster
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« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2018, 06:13:21 pm »

Saccone's closing message.



https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560
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henster
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2018, 12:52:06 pm »

Did a tarot reading this morning and I'm expecting a Saccone win of 3-5 points.
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henster
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2018, 01:02:55 pm »

The snow showers are worrying especially since it seems to be heavy in Allegheny.
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henster
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2018, 01:25:27 pm »

I don't think Ossoff was a good candidate not much of a resume and didn't even live in the district, which I think mattered a lot.
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henster
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« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2018, 03:58:26 pm »

Would have hoped for at least 40% in Allegheny, the snow has probably shaved 1-2% off of Lamb’s vote.
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henster
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« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2018, 07:00:49 pm »

Final prediction Saccone wins 52-46.
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