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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127422 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« on: January 07, 2018, 05:59:21 pm »

This thread is dumb. Republicans leading by 12 in a district Trump won by 20 is hardly great news for them. Of course, it pours cold water over the Atlas fantasy of Dems winning 100+ House seats, but who cares.

Also, if those are Wolf's and Casey's real approvals in this district, they're both going to win re-election easily.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2018, 06:07:44 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2018, 06:12:12 pm »

The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

I mean, it would've been hard for it to get LESS popular, so obviously it was going to improve somewhat if it actually passed and the right wing had their victory parties.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2018, 06:13:54 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.

We already know Trump is popular in West Virginia though. And yes, I do think Manchin is likely to lose. Greedo lumped Brown and Casey in with Manchin in that post, which is obviously ridiculous.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2018, 08:24:10 pm »

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

How is being up 12 in a district Trump won by 20 extremely good for Republicans? Seriously, how? Unless you were expecting a complete bloodbath in 2018.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2018, 08:44:12 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2018, 08:36:33 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.

He has a better approval rating than Shelley Moore Capito: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/

We'll see what that looks like after the ads and Trump attacks start.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2018, 08:41:05 pm »

IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. Tongue

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R. Wink
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2018, 11:53:10 pm »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2018, 05:49:56 pm »

I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trumpís strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named ďPittsburgSteelĒ knows his corner of the country better than you

lol. If you're familiar with the poster Bandit from Kentucky, you'd see what a foolish statement that was.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2018, 06:21:15 pm »

Atlas posters tend to fundamentally misunderstand the voters and assume they are motivated by facts and logic. They're motivated by emotion, tribalism, and their own version of reality. Trump could've personally ordered the closing of that mine on video tape and they'd still say it was fake news, blame Obama/Hillary, and continue to strongly support their god emperor.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2018, 04:07:22 pm »

Something is happening here:

Quote
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The Wisconsin special election race probably spooked them. North western Wisconsin is similar to south western Pennsylvania. Saccone has also been really struggling with fundraising and volunteers.

How so? NW WI swung heavily toward Obama in 2008, SW PA was one of the few places in the country to swing against him.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2018, 03:40:38 pm »

Saccone only up 3

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source

Meh, way too many undecideds. Obviously Lamb is going to get more than 38%. 48-45 would've been a lot more interesting.

Also, I highly doubt Trump is only at 49-47 approval in this district when he's at 40% nationally. And there's no way in hell that Wolf is more popular in the district than Toomey and on the same level as Trump. I'm calling junk poll.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2018, 03:56:22 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2018, 06:38:44 pm »

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2018, 02:47:21 pm »

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2018, 03:24:14 pm »

Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

Lol. Even if the GOP is completely BTFO in 2018 and/or 2020, they'll rebound again within one or two elections. Trump will be a distant memory by then. Such is the nature of American politics.
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