PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 194893 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2525 on: March 18, 2018, 02:45:49 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2526 on: March 18, 2018, 02:47:11 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2527 on: March 18, 2018, 02:50:40 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2528 on: March 18, 2018, 02:52:25 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.
Wait, are we on the same page here? I am talking about new PA-14.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2529 on: March 18, 2018, 02:55:01 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.
Wait, are we on the same page here? I am talking about new PA-14.

...yes? The new PA-14 includes almost all of Westmoreland County.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2530 on: March 18, 2018, 02:56:54 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.

I still think the GOP keeps this seat, but it is worth noting that the reddest part of Westmoreland is going into PA 13.
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« Reply #2531 on: March 18, 2018, 02:57:20 PM »

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.
Wait, are we on the same page here? I am talking about new PA-14.

...yes? The new PA-14 includes almost all of Westmoreland County.
Evidence points to most statewide D nominees losing it by high single digits.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2532 on: March 18, 2018, 02:59:37 PM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=42&year=2016&f=0&off=8&elect=0
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« Reply #2533 on: March 18, 2018, 06:33:00 PM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2534 on: March 18, 2018, 06:38:51 PM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2535 on: March 18, 2018, 11:04:31 PM »

Now that we have the election results available, excepting a small number of provisional and military ballots, I pulled some comparative and historical data for the South Allegheny portion of CD-18, to follow up on a preceding post that I made prior to the election....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281457.msg6102019#msg6102019

Although the subject of to what extent Ancestral Democrats and Obama > Romney > Trump Democrats returning home to vote for Lamb is an important question in its own right, as well as potential implications for the future in both PA elections, as well as elsewhere in the country, the massive shifts towards the Democratic Party in the Pittsburgh suburbs has equally important potential implications.

Republicans are absolutely correct if they are terrified about what happened in CD-18, especially within the local context of Pennsylvania politics.

These are Republican leaning suburbs that for the most part have resisted significant swings towards the Democratic Party, unlike many similar communities elsewhere over the past 10+ years.

There are a ton of similar communities elsewhere within the Pittsburgh suburbs, which means if we see similar patterns in the 2018 and 2020 General Elections has profound implications within PA politics.

Let's look at how "South Allegheny" voted as a whole between 2008 and 2017....



As we can see, generally the 'Burbs of South Allegheny vote considerably to the Right of PA, as well as Allegheny county as a whole, although we did see the gap narrow considerably in the 2016 in both the US PRES and US SEN race.

Let's look at the data from another perspective...



Here we can see that generally between '08 and '16, South Allegheny roughly voted 10% more Republican than PA as a whole, especially in Presidential Races where it voted 12-15% more 'Pub than PA as a whole in '08 and '12.

This is part of the reason why I say that although the South Pittsburgh 'Burbs have potentially been gradually trending Dem, until the Special election in CD-18 we had yet to see a real breakthrough Dem moment, outside of a handful of Communities.

As I stated earlier PA Republicans have a major issue on their hands if this pattern is replicated in 2018 and 2020 here, and in similar parts of the Pittsburgh 'Burbs.



Time to get into the meat of the matter (Or Veggie Protein options if that is one's preference)....

How did the various communities in South Allegheny Vote in 2017, and how did they swing compared to the 2016 GE PRES?





The most striking thing here is how extensive the Democratic victory in South Allegheny was, only losing 2/14 largest Townships/Municipalities (Elizabeth & Jefferson Hills), and a swing from 15-20% compared to the '16 Pres GE results everywhere, except Elizabeth Township and only a 14% Dem swing in Upper St Clair.

Much of the MSM and Atlas coverage has been focused on Mt Lebanon, but the reality is that it is only very recently that it has become anything approaching a "Democratic Stronghold", as I posted a reply on this thread earlier regarding which areas to watch closely on Election Night, and it only accounts for a relative sliver of South Allegheny and CD-18, so is perhaps much less typical of Suburban Pittsburgh than many of these other communities.

Ok... let's roll with some charts and stats of elections results by place within South Allegheny from '08 to '16....

2016 PRES Results by Place Graph...



2016 PRES results by Place Chart



Even in 2016 where South Allegheny shifted DEM, Clinton only won 3/14 of the largest places with Mt Lebanon standing out, as well as an acceptable performance in Scott Township, throw in a narrow victory in Whitehall and the "Other Category".

2016 PA SEN by Place Charts & Graphs....





2014 PA GOV by Place Charts & Graphs...





2012 PA PRES South Allegheny Charts & Graphs:





2012 PA South Allegheny SEN Charts & Graphs:






2010 PA South Allegheny SEN Charts & Graphs:





2010 PA South Allegheny GOV Charts and Graphs:





2008 PA South Allegheny Charts & Graphs:





Massive raw data dump here and still need to take some time to digest and pull up and publish the Political and Social Demographics of the various communities to mine whatever potential past, current, and future implications have to say.

Thinking my next move should examine the question to what extent high Base Democratic turnout vs Republican turnout might have potentially changed the results, similar to some of my analysis of precinct level returns from the Alabama Special elections results, where it appears that a mixture of high Dem turnout in certain places, combined with low Pub turnout in other places, and throw in a decent chunk of Republican > Dem crossover voters in Upper Incomes suburbs contributed to Doug Jones win in Alabama....

On the surface it does NOT appear that a turnout variable was a significant contribution to Lamb's win in PA CD-18, but rather a massive swing among Republican leaning voters in the Pittsburgh suburbs of South Allegheny combined with even larger swings among Ancestral Dem voters in Washington and Greene Counties (Westmoreland is still a place I have not examined in any significant detail)....

Part of the reason why I think this election is particularly significant is that unlike many other special elections it was a relatively high turnout election closer to a Midterm level Turnouts as opposed to many other recent Special Elections, where there might be a decent argument to be made that Dem Base voters turned out in much higher numbers than usual....

The story that we are seeing from the Pittsburgh suburbs appear to tell an entirely different story....

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« Reply #2536 on: March 18, 2018, 11:33:30 PM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

All Lamb needs to do is win Beaver County, which Wolf carried in 2014.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2537 on: March 18, 2018, 11:37:24 PM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

All Lamb needs to do is win Beaver County, which Wolf carried in 2014.

You mean winning Beaver would make him a lock, right? Because he can win the district if he keeps it close enough but still loses it.
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Badger
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« Reply #2538 on: March 19, 2018, 01:08:46 AM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.
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Badger
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« Reply #2539 on: March 19, 2018, 01:27:31 AM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

All Lamb needs to do is win Beaver County, which Wolf carried in 2014.

You mean winning Beaver would make him a lock, right? Because he can win the district if he keeps it close enough but still loses it.

So what is rothfuss pvi for Beaver County in his prior races? That is, how much ahead or behind of his district-wide percentage has he run in Beaver County during his three elections?
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« Reply #2540 on: March 19, 2018, 01:30:24 AM »

So has Saccone finally raised his haunches and submission and conceded yet? Or is he still pulling a Roy Moore at this point?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2541 on: March 19, 2018, 01:44:49 AM »

So has Saccone finally raised his haunches and submission and conceded yet? Or is he still pulling a Roy Moore at this point?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/16/house-election-observers-monitor-pennsylvania-count-as-democrat-gains-votes/?utm_term=.85ddee217d5b
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2542 on: March 19, 2018, 01:48:57 AM »


Oh my God, Dave Weigel looks like a Ron Jeremy-style porn star in that photo.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2543 on: March 19, 2018, 08:05:50 AM »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

Yes and no. He wins if he gets exactly the same percentages as Clinton in the parts of the district that aren't in the old PA-18 and gets exactly the same percentages he got in the special election in the parts of the district that are in the old PA-18. That's as close to a guarantee as you can get.
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« Reply #2544 on: March 19, 2018, 03:33:26 PM »

Far Northern Allegheny county is a bit of a republican stronghold IIRC. That may actually be a bigger challenge for Lamb than Beaver County.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2545 on: March 19, 2018, 03:42:49 PM »

Far Northern Allegheny county is a bit of a republican stronghold IIRC. That may actually be a bigger challenge for Lamb than Beaver County.

It also was the area of Allgeheny County that swung the hardest to Clinton in 2016.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2546 on: March 20, 2018, 02:47:01 AM »

To summarize the dump of election data by place for South Allegheny between 2008 and 2017 that I posted last night, here is a chart that I coded by color to present a more accessible visual of +/- Dem Margins that reinforces the point that I have been making regarding the historically Republican nature of these communities within the past ten years....



So, I took a little bit of time to pull up some of the key demographic stats for these various communities within South Allegheny for some of the common variables that have been associated with National Presidential election results from 2008 > 2016.

These include items such as Median Household Income, Race/Ethnicity/Age/Educational Attainment, so see if this helps explain or provide insights into changing voting alignments and swings at a larger level throughout PA, and with possible implications elsewhere within the Region.



Certain things make sense within the context of the current Trump ascendancy within the Republican Party....

1.) Upper St Clair, the wealthiest and most educated "municipality" went from being the most Republican stronghold within the district up until 2016 when Trump was on the ballot, where he only won by 3.5% (But still it went heavily 'Pub for US Senate) to being a +10% Dem CD with typically high voter turnout.

Interestingly enough it also has the highest % of school children (<18 Yrs) and this is the type of community where voters can easily swing based upon educational funding and quality type policy issues and perceptions.

2.) Mount Lebanon is an interesting recent development as a "Democratic Stronghold", since although it shares in common with Upper St Clair a high level of Educational Attainment, actually only ranks 4th in MHI within the largest places in the District, and age and ethnicity actually track relatively close to South Allegheny at large. It does have a higher % than average of school age students, and is obviously much more closely proximate to Pittsburgh, so perhaps has less of the "City/Suburban" type issue than some other places within the district?

Perhaps one of our local residents can elucidate us on why this area has been a relatively solid Dem constituency since '08?

3.) Bethel Park--- Looks a bit older and a bit more Anglo, but in terms of MHI, Educational Attainment is still solidly Upper Middle Class, and this is first major election where it has voted Democrat since before '08.

4.) Moon Township--- Really similar to Bethel Park demographically and politically, with both virtually voting in tandem with the exception of the '14 PA GOV race, and slightly lower swings towards Lamb than Bethel (Trump effect?). Only major demographic difference is that Moon Township is less Anglo than Bethel fwiw.

5.) Scott Township
---- One of a handful of "Middle Class" 'Burbs here with an MHI of only $61k/Yr, but is only 82% Anglo with an older than average population and relatively high educational attainment levels.

One of the few consistent Democrat voting communities here, with the exception of '12 PA SEN and '10 PA GOV.

6.) South Fayette--- Wealthier and more educated than many places within South Allegheny, and actually a bit younger than most of the other places referenced above.

One of the larger flips within South Allegheny never having voted Dem for any of the races covered and by +21% Swing.

7.) Whitehall Borough------ The lowest income municipality of the 14 largest places within South Allegheny. One of the older places within the County and with a lower than average level of educational attainment.

Politically, it's one of only a handful of communities that Obama almost won in '08, and was actually one of the more Democratic parts of So Allegheny in '12 PA SEN and '14 PA GOV, and actually flipped and voted DEM for HRC in '16 after having voted for McCain and Romney previously.

Ancestral retired Democrats?Huh

8.) South Park Twp
---- Whiter, Younger, solidly Middle Class and lower levels of educational attainment than most of the top 14 communities.

One of Obama's best communities in South Allegheny in '08, and one of a handful of places the '12 Dem Sen and '14 Dem Gov candidates won here....

Interestingly enough was one of Lamb's worst Top 14 places within SoAlleg....

9.) Elizabeth Township
---- Sure the Pub had a homefield advantage here as Lamb did in Mt Lebanon, but you are basically looking at the Whitest, Oldest, and least educated community within the Top 14 of SoAlleg.

Still, the interesting thing about Elizabeth Township is how far it swung Republican, even as other parts of the district were swinging marginally Democrat.... Basically we are right on the edge of the Westmoreland County line and perhaps there is an ancestral Anti-Pittsburgh thing going on, without the Ancestral Dem thing in parts of Washington and Greene Counties (IDK?Huh)

I can roll through a few more using the charts provided above, and we see Robinson Township swinging hard (Educated, Upper Middle Class, Higher than avg % of Non-Anglos for the District), but then we roll into Jefferson Hills Borough, which on the surface is very similar to Robinson, except it is 96% Anglo vs 88 % Anglo, which was the only real difference that stood out to me based upon Demographics....

Now we go the Pleasant Hills Borough, which is pretty much the oldest and Whitest place here, next to Elizabeth and Whitehall, and we see one of the largest swings towards the Dem candidate of almost anywhere in the County, where the last time it voted Dem was in '12 narrowly for the US SEN!!!!

So y'all can put that in your pipe and smoke it, since I've been doing a stream of consciousness as I have been running the Demographics by Community against historical election results, so I don't have any firm conclusions about what all of this means without delving deeper into precinct level detail and Census Data....

What I suspect might well be the case is that:

1.) Senior Citizens (65+) that tend to vote regularly swung hard towards Lamb because of the perception that the Affordable Care Act and Government Entitlement Programs that benefit Seniors are under attack by the Republican Congress.

(Ancestral Democrats)

2.) Upper and Middle Class College Educated voters in the 'Burbs of Pittsburgh are starting to swing heavily, and not just in the most heavily educated places within the CD (Upper St Clair and Mt Lebanon).

3.) In general "Soft Trump" voters within even Lean 'Pub areas in Metro 'Burbs are starting to shop around, since the whole "Anti-Bush" style of Republicanism portraying a classical isolationist and protectionist ideal is being rubbed raw as the Emperor is exposed as having no clothes, and instead of focusing on keeping decent paying jobs in America and avoiding foreign engagements overseas, is basically looking like your "Old Skool 'Pub Pres", where Robin Hood means "robbing the hood", tax cuts for everyone, means "tax cuts for the rich", bringing jobs back to America means "Same old Same old and whatever manufacturing jobs come back pay 25-50% of the wages they did 20 years ago", where "protecting our borders" means sending Americas sons and daughters born of Immigrant parents back home to a land they never knew, except through the stories of their parents and grandparents.

Regardless of some minor amount of hyperbole on my last point, I do believe that in the eyes of many Trump voters, including some Millennials that I know, they did not intend to vote for the current policies and direction of the country, regardless of how much they disliked HRC and thought that maybe, just maybe Trump would be a different type of Republican than they had seen in decades.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2547 on: March 20, 2018, 11:53:22 AM »

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2548 on: March 20, 2018, 12:08:42 PM »



Whew, lad. 2 more buses.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2549 on: March 20, 2018, 03:01:55 PM »



DOMINATING
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