PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197629 times)
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #2350 on: March 14, 2018, 05:19:33 AM »

What votes are left?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2351 on: March 14, 2018, 05:29:58 AM »

Looks like Lamb won WashCo absentees by around 5 points. As MaxQue pointed out, there's a bigger margin now than there are votes left to count (including military ballots).
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #2352 on: March 14, 2018, 05:37:47 AM »

There are still the ~200 Greene absentees too, but those obviously won't move the needle.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2353 on: March 14, 2018, 06:19:39 AM »
« Edited: March 14, 2018, 06:27:50 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

Figured I'd reverse-engineer us a map using Atlas colors and a more sensitive gradient:



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Progressive
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« Reply #2354 on: March 14, 2018, 06:28:06 AM »

Ok so a number of stats and data friends are doing the math with me. Saccone would have to win remaining absentees by like 30 points to win despite underperforming in absentees vs E-Day. At this point it's pretty doubtful that Saccone can win. Right? Or did I miss something?
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #2355 on: March 14, 2018, 06:32:48 AM »

Ok so a number of stats and data friends are doing the math with me. Saccone would have to win remaining absentees by like 30 points to win despite underperforming in absentees vs E-Day. At this point it's pretty doubtful that Saccone can win. Right? Or did I miss something?
The only absentee ballots left are from Greene county.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2356 on: March 14, 2018, 06:36:03 AM »

Ok so a number of stats and data friends are doing the math with me. Saccone would have to win remaining absentees by like 30 points to win despite underperforming in absentees vs E-Day. At this point it's pretty doubtful that Saccone can win. Right? Or did I miss something?

He has lost.

There are only a handful of ballots left to count, fewer than Lamb's current margin.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2357 on: March 14, 2018, 06:46:08 AM »

So checking Twitter and MAGA crowd is going with the "he's actually a republican so suck it libs" spin. Adorable
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2358 on: March 14, 2018, 06:48:02 AM »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.

No sh**t, Sherlock?

Many independents and Republicans have soured on the national party since Ossoff's race. He'd win narrowly today.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2359 on: March 14, 2018, 06:49:46 AM »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.

No sh**t, Sherlock?

Many independents and Republicans have soured on the national party since Ossoff's race. He'd win narrowly today.
I wonder if Ossoff will run for anything this year.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #2360 on: March 14, 2018, 06:53:54 AM »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.

No sh**t, Sherlock?

Many independents and Republicans have soured on the national party since Ossoff's race. He'd win narrowly today.
I wonder if Ossoff will run for anything this year.

He already declined. But I feel people forget that Karen Handel was a solid candidate won statewide, fit the district, and had high name recognition. She the best special election GOP nominee so far after Curtis. Had she chose not to run Ossoff could have won or avoid a runoff entirely.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2361 on: March 14, 2018, 07:09:36 AM »

Interesting thread...because the DCCC is so openly bragging after the fact and outlining what it did:








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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #2362 on: March 14, 2018, 07:10:03 AM »

Dem enthusiasm is even stronger than I thought.

A win in PA-18 makes wins in places like IL-06 not just possible but likely.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2363 on: March 14, 2018, 07:11:43 AM »

Gina Cerilli, this is your time.



sh**t, so he might still become my representative.

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2364 on: March 14, 2018, 07:13:18 AM »

Interesting thread...because the DCCC is so openly bragging after the fact and outlining what it did:










Honestly probably a much better investment than spending a zillion dollars on TV ads, which should only be a focus for candidates already completely flush with cash for organization anyway (think Obama 2008 GE).
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2365 on: March 14, 2018, 07:16:06 AM »

Interesting thread...because the DCCC is so openly bragging after the fact and outlining what it did:









They really mastered the art of quietly supporting deep red dems
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2366 on: March 14, 2018, 07:21:08 AM »

Saccone requesting a recount would be utterly pointless since neither of them will be representing the district.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2367 on: March 14, 2018, 07:21:54 AM »

Not going to stop some Bernie supporters from slamming "the DNC" for abandoning candidates.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2368 on: March 14, 2018, 07:22:56 AM »

PPP did a post election survey of the PA-18 electorate

Out of those who voted last night, Trump only had a 50-48 approval rating.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2369 on: March 14, 2018, 07:24:36 AM »

Not going to stop some Bernie supporters from slamming "the DNC" for abandoning candidates.

What's really funny is OurRevolution congratulated Lamb for his win while at the same time they are constantly trashing as neoliberal DINOs candidates like him.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2370 on: March 14, 2018, 07:36:12 AM »

The same people claiming that Conor is a Republican and that his victory doesn't mean anything for November were calling him a "Pelosi Liberal" just yesterday...
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2371 on: March 14, 2018, 07:55:47 AM »

The same people claiming that Conor is a Republican and that his victory doesn't mean anything for November were calling him a "Pelosi Liberal" just yesterday...

What a time. Rip Hawking btw. So from what I hear there are only a few hundred provsionals and a few dozen military ballots left. Am I wrong, or is that about right?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2372 on: March 14, 2018, 08:00:57 AM »

Lamb up to a 677 vote lead.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2373 on: March 14, 2018, 08:02:26 AM »

The same people claiming that Conor is a Republican and that his victory doesn't mean anything for November were calling him a "Pelosi Liberal" just yesterday...

What a time. Rip Hawking btw. So from what I hear there are only a few hundred provsionals and a few dozen military ballots left. Am I wrong, or is that about right?

Just Greene, and I'm not even sure about the military ballots, they could have been included in the provisional count. Now all we have is the potential recount, which is already going to be crazy since Lamb and Saccone are collecting signatures this week for different districts.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2374 on: March 14, 2018, 08:10:09 AM »

What time is Greene announcing their absentees?
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