PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197718 times)
gf20202
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« Reply #2250 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:13 PM »

As to why no call from the networks, It's close enough that a bad reporting/tabulation error could swing the election or at least make it close enough that a recount could swing it. Best we can hope for is an Apparent Winner Designation.
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socaldem
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« Reply #2251 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:19 PM »

So. Would Gina Cerilli have been a better candidate? Or would she not have prevailed without Lamb's Allegheny hometown advantage?

She would have lost this I think, but she can win the new PA-14 now that that river region is included.

A total nightmare for the GOP.

I think Conor Lamb is favored in the new PA-17. He will clean up in the territory from the old PA-17 and PA-18 in the new district. Meanwhile, he is fundraising dynamite ant the national GOP won't have the resources to save Rothfus. The closeness of the race only makes Lamb that much more celebrated.

Meanwhile, Saccone came so very close that he'll be able to clear the field in PA-14. The problem is the new district is missing his home base in Southern Allegheny County... Saccone is such a miserable fundraiser and is so gaffe-prone and already has high negatives. The GOP won't be able to spend $6 million tarring her...

Really hoping Gina Cerilli gets in. Please, please, please. It would still Lean Republican, though.

Dems really need to toss Pelosi. We need a leader that can help us make more inroads into the traditionally Dem areas....
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2252 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:23 PM »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...
I found out here of all places.
MSNBC via Brian Williams.
BBC notification on my phone.
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bilaps
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« Reply #2253 on: March 13, 2018, 11:19:03 PM »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.

Trump was not issue here, his approval is 51% in a Monmouth poll which showed 6% Lamb win, so probably even better among today's electorate. Problem for Republicans is enthusiasm gap. Saccone hit the marks he needed for a tight race in 3 counties outside Allegheny but turnout in Allegheny was higher than in these counties. Generic republican can't energise the base like Trump, that's whay they're in a rough shape. They lose suburbs because of Trump among higher educated voters, that's true and generic republican isn't Trump to offset these losses among rural not so educated communities
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emcee0
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« Reply #2254 on: March 13, 2018, 11:19:14 PM »

I had to google it to make sure it was true.
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Sestak
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« Reply #2255 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:13 PM »


Also found out here. RIP a true inspiration and one-of-a-kind example of the immense capabilities of the human mind.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2256 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:27 PM »

How much longer until we get the last votes in, estimated?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2257 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:38 PM »


Also found out here. RIP a true inspiration and one-of-a-kind example of the immense capabilities of the human mind.
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Badger
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« Reply #2258 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:41 PM »

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.


That's assuming that the absentees match the ED vote, right?

If so, Lamb has done better in absentees in both Allegheny and Westmoreland. I'd imagine it'll stay the same in Washington and Greene.

Hell, extrapolating the D-lean of SW PA absentees, both generally and especially from today, there's a decent chance he'll pick up votes from the Washington absentees, quite possibly enough to offset the literal handful Saccone picks up in Greene.

Yeah, it's over. Lamb won.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2259 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:49 PM »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.

Trump was not issue here, his approval is 51% in a Monmouth poll which showed 6% Lamb win, so probably even better among today's electorate. Problem for Republicans is enthusiasm gap. Saccone hit the marks he needed for a tight race in 3 counties outside Allegheny but turnout in Allegheny was higher than in these counties. Generic republican can't energise the base like Trump, that's whay they're in a rough shape. They lose suburbs because of Trump among higher educated voters, that's true and generic republican isn't Trump to offset these losses among rural not so educated communities

Lol, keep thinking that.

You sound like delusional Democrats after they lost Teddy's seat in 2010.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #2260 on: March 13, 2018, 11:21:00 PM »

Saccone needs over 70% of outstanding votes to win, according to CNN.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2261 on: March 13, 2018, 11:21:05 PM »

Daily Kos has called the election...

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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #2262 on: March 13, 2018, 11:22:23 PM »

cnn on my Mac
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Mzal98
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« Reply #2263 on: March 13, 2018, 11:22:30 PM »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...

I found out on the reddit megathread, had to double check
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bilaps
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« Reply #2264 on: March 13, 2018, 11:23:10 PM »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.

Trump was not issue here, his approval is 51% in a Monmouth poll which showed 6% Lamb win, so probably even better among today's electorate. Problem for Republicans is enthusiasm gap. Saccone hit the marks he needed for a tight race in 3 counties outside Allegheny but turnout in Allegheny was higher than in these counties. Generic republican can't energise the base like Trump, that's whay they're in a rough shape. They lose suburbs because of Trump among higher educated voters, that's true and generic republican isn't Trump to offset these losses among rural not so educated communities

Lol, keep thinking that.

You sound like delusional Democrats after they lost Teddy's seat in 2010.

Keep thinking what exactly? It's a fact it's not thinking when you cite a poll.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2265 on: March 13, 2018, 11:23:13 PM »

Yeah, Lamb has this.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2266 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:25 PM »

Saccone needs over 70% of outstanding votes to win, according to CNN.
If he couldn't do that with Westmoreland and it was his best county.  No way he does it with Greene and Washington
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tallguy23
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« Reply #2267 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:36 PM »

Special elections are much more elastic than national elections. I'd hold off the breaks on even a gain of 60-70 at this point.

Definitely. I always play safe but I think 45 seats isn't out of the question.
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Matty
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« Reply #2268 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:40 PM »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2269 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:10 PM »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?

Something like that.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #2270 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:15 PM »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

Rep. Lou Barletta could still give Sen. Bob Casey a tough race in November.

PA-SEN is Lean D.

lol the  is this
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2271 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:33 PM »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?
52-53
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2272 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:03 PM »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

Rep. Lou Barletta could still give Sen. Bob Casey a tough race in November.

PA-SEN is Lean D.

lol the  is this

Tbh, Lou Barletta is probably a weaker candidate than Rick Saccone.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2273 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:31 PM »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2274 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:46 PM »


Freedom map.
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