PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Tintrlvr]

Lost in all of this: monmouth pooped the bed.

their high turnout model (which this race is) is off by labout 5 points.

Being off by five points in a congressional district is honestly a great result for a pollster. Congressional district polling is notoriously off-base.

[KB]

Lamb wins by 4 points, I think

rip

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lost in all of this: monmouth pooped the bed.

their high turnout model (which this race is) is off by labout 5 points.

That's holding them to too high a standard.  This is still within the MoE for that projection.  (And historically, the error for polling special elections has been much higher than that for regular elections.)

[ajc0918]

@tbonier
 1m1 minute ago
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Regarding the absentee votes outstanding in PA18, that will apparently be decisive - in Allegheny County (countywide, not just CD18) in '16, the absentee votes were 4.5% more Democratic than the election day vote.

[Sestak]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Does not include absentees. 100% of physically cast Election Day vote.

[LimoLiberal]

Again, Saccone will make up those 750 votes in the remaining Washington county precincts. Absentees will decide the race.

[Hindsight was 2020]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

It doesn't the math doesn't add up

[Gass3268]

Lost in all of this: monmouth pooped the bed.

their high turnout model (which this race is) is off by labout 5 points.

That's still in the margin of error.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone know when Westmoreland's absentee ballots come in?

[Mr. Smith]

I don't see how Saccone can get 756 votes.

There are 8 Washington Co. precincts left, all he has to do is get each of them by 100, and so far, every surrounding precinct out has been won by at least that.

[Bidenworth2020]

Again, Saccone will make up those 750 votes in the remaining Washington county precincts. Absentees will decide the race.

so that probably means a lamb win.

[ajc0918]

Michael McDonald
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@ElectProject
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How will the #PA18 absentee ballots break? In Westmoreland County in the 2016 presidential election, Trump won the Election Day vote 63.9% to 32.2%; won the absentee vote by a narrower margin, 55.8% to 38.8%

[ProudModerate2]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

[Sestak]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

Almost certainly not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

No, their absentee count will be done around midnight.

[Tintrlvr]

755 votes. I don't think Rick can make up raw vote and absentee should boost Lamb around midnight  

Not so sure. Most of the remaining precincts are in Peters, where there are six precincts remaining. It's been strong for Saccone, with his average net votes per precinct around 120 or so. It will be very close before absentees.

The other two Washington county precincts are one in North Strabane, where Saccone should net around 50 votes or so, and one in Chartiers, which should be around a wash.

[Hammy]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

Almost certainly not.

I've been catching up the last half hour and I think somebody said around midnight for Allegheny county earlier.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's mostly Peters, Pennsylvania that's out so far.

Saccone's already netted 703 votes from Peters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

755 votes. I don't think Rick can make up raw vote and absentee should boost Lamb around midnight  

Not so sure. Most of the remaining precincts are in Peters, where there are six precincts remaining. It's been strong for Saccone, with his average net votes per precinct around 120 or so. It will be very close before absentees.

The other two Washington county precincts are one in North Strabane, where Saccone should net around 50 votes or so, and one in Chartiers, which should be around a wash.

If Saccone comes out on top tonight but absentees give the victory to Lamb, the meltdown on the right is going to be epic.

[swf541]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

yep midnight or earlier
Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

Almost certainly not.

I've been catching up the last half hour and I think somebody said around midnight for Allegheny county earlier.

[LimoLiberal]

I think this his how it goes

• Saccone wins ED voting up by about 300 votes
• In absentee ballots, Lamb nets 700 from Allegheny
• Saccone nets 500 from Washington, Greene, and Westmoreland

So Saccone wins by about 100 votes?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When does Westmoreland count their absentees?

[Doimper]

755 votes. I don't think Rick can make up raw vote and absentee should boost Lamb around midnight  

Not so sure. Most of the remaining precincts are in Peters, where there are six precincts remaining. It's been strong for Saccone, with his average net votes per precinct around 120 or so. It will be very close before absentees.

The other two Washington county precincts are one in North Strabane, where Saccone should net around 50 votes or so, and one in Chartiers, which should be around a wash.

If Saccone comes out on top tonight but absentees give the victory to Lamb, the meltdown on the right is going to be epic.

Calling it now: Trump is going to imply that the absentee vote was somehow rigged.

[Gass3268]

I don't see how Saccone can get 756 votes.

There are 8 Washington Co. precincts left, all he has to do is get each of them by 100, and so far, every surrounding precinct out has been won by at least that.

Maybe in Peters Township, but Lamb has done well in Canton Township and Chartiers Township for those to probably lean towards Lamb. No idea for Midway Borough.

[ProudModerate2]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

No, their absentee count will be done around midnight.

OK. Good.
Otherwise, Lamb's small lead could/would be more easily overtaken.