PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Crumpets]

If Sacccone is up at the end of the night but Lamb is put over the top on absentee ballots, the reaction from the GOP is going to be apocalyptic - and I can't really blame them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This race is exactly why I think polls and models are junk

They're not junk; they're useful tools -- but no more than that.  The problem is people thinking they're exact predictors.

[Sestak]

Washington looks to be the scary part... Later precincts of Allegheny haven't added much to margin.

[History505]

Whoever wins, it is gonna be a real squeaker.

[Xing]

I can't see Saccone netting more than 1,000 with the remaining Washington/Westmoreland votes, and there's still some Allegheny vote left to count. It probably goes to a recount, but Lamb should win, albeit in a squeaker.

[Progressive]

Ok so Lamb winning this right?

[MAINEiac4434]

12 precincts remaining in Allegheny. They're Lamb leaning.

That means five are in Westmoreland.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yep! Lamb will win!

[MAINEiac4434]

Lamb now up by 0.6%

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is gonna be close.

[Brittain33]

Moon Twp came in and increased Lamb's lead slightly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[ProudModerate2]

Lamb increasing his small lead. Now leading by about 1,100 votes.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Whatever happens, it's still good news for Dems in PA. Whatever cretins the GOP nominates for Senate and Governor (especially Wagner) don't have a chance in hell.

[Oryxslayer]

Lamb up to 0.6 now...

Whats left in allegheny is lamb territory. Washington is mixed but pro-Saccone. Westmoreland probs has like <5ish precncts left.

[AtorBoltox]

Congratulations Congresaman Lamb

[Truvinny]

Has anyone called the race yet?

[trebor204]

Projected Results: (if each candidate keeps it % vote in each county)


Lamb: 108,035
Saccone: 106,793

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN just reported that Allegheny absentee count is estimated to be complete around midnight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has anyone called the race yet?

Way too close.  I doubt we'll get a call until 100% of the returns are in.

[136or142]

On CNN, approximately 4,200 absentee ballots are being counted from Allegheny County and they expect results in 3 hours.

[MAINEiac4434]

Shut up Rick Santorum.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.

He did in Pennsylvania, including winning PA-18 by a huge margin. You know that's what I'm talking about here.

The demographics for this mid-term are going to be completely different than 2016.

I'm talking about how Saccone could have won this specific district and how the GOP can win other similar Trump districts. Of course the midterm will favor democrats. The party out of the White House almost always gains. But there's no reason why republicans should lose districts where Trump won by this much.

Unless, and I know this is just a crazy thought here, when people don't have a choice of someone is unpopular is Hillary Clinton, they're having more than a little bit of buyer's remorse about Trump. Couldn't think why though....

Because the economy is thriving? Because we may secure lasting peace with North Korea? The only real reasons people would have for souring on Trump are personality traits and his failure to start building the wall. Reminder that he won voters who listed immigration as their top concern by a 2:1 ratio. No other issue was so lopsided. If republicans can't win solidly pro-Trump districts, it's because they ignore the issues that made him popular.

I'm pretty sure Lamb spoke more about protectionist policies than Saccone. While that's not a recipe for success in suburbia, it is in SWPA. Democrats are learning to pick candidates that match their district. The GOP establishment, unsurprisingly, is too clueless to do likewise.

[ProudModerate2]

CNN just reported that Allegheny absentee count is estimated to be complete around midnight.

Hmmm.
We may need to wait until tomorrow morning for the final result.

[BudgieForce]

2 effing hours!? Im gonna need more booze.