PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197997 times)
ProudModerate2
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« Reply #1650 on: March 13, 2018, 08:16:13 PM »

This is gonna give me a heart attack.
Even worse than the Super Bowl

LOL.
Don't go "nutty" over "The Needle."
Something tells me this NYT "Needle" thing, is going to be a hit on Atlas (now and in the future).
8-)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1651 on: March 13, 2018, 08:16:20 PM »


Cohn readjusted the model to account for Saccone overperforming in his own district.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1652 on: March 13, 2018, 08:16:48 PM »

The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1653 on: March 13, 2018, 08:17:29 PM »

judging by the way southern Allegheny has gone for Lamb, I think Washington co. could be pretty bad for him as most remaining precincts are in Saccone's district.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1654 on: March 13, 2018, 08:17:46 PM »


Cohn readjusted the model to account for Saccone overperforming in his own district.

Nah, he just explained why it was happening. Model adjuested itself.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1655 on: March 13, 2018, 08:18:08 PM »

Very large turnout for this special election. 
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Badger
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« Reply #1656 on: March 13, 2018, 08:18:34 PM »

The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.

And we would have won Colorado in Delaware if we hadn't nominated tea party crackpots, oh, and Nevada to. We would have won the popular vote if we had nominated Trump. But there seems to be an addiction my party to the farthest right extremist candidates.

That's the problem, I am part of the solution.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1657 on: March 13, 2018, 08:19:09 PM »



Who's besting their NYt benchmarks where. 
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #1658 on: March 13, 2018, 08:19:12 PM »

Stop acting like Lamb getting precincts in Greene is incredible. Greene county only favored the GOP senate candidate by 3% in 2012, while Washington county only favored him by 4.2%. Lamb is doing well, but it's far from extraordinary.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1659 on: March 13, 2018, 08:19:32 PM »

The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.

And we would have won Colorado in Delaware if we hadn't nominated tea party crackpots, oh, and Nevada to. We would have won the popular vote if we had nominated Trump. But there seems to be an addiction my party to the farthest right extremist candidates.

That's the problem, I am part of the solution.
Badger I love you but come to the Democrats please
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1660 on: March 13, 2018, 08:19:39 PM »

The benchmark site is indicating a final margin for Lamb of less than 1%.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1661 on: March 13, 2018, 08:20:01 PM »

One area that is being overlooked but will be significant is the suburbs in Washington County. A lot is reporting from Washington County thus far, but only rural areas and the smaller cities. There's almost nothing from Peters, in particular, which has a large portion of the population of Washington County and is a wealthy and quite Republican Pittsburgh suburb, very different from the rest of Washington County. We don't have a great sense yet of how much it will swing further to Lamb relative to 2016.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1662 on: March 13, 2018, 08:20:32 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1663 on: March 13, 2018, 08:20:35 PM »

The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.

And we would have won Colorado in Delaware if we hadn't nominated tea party crackpots, oh, and Nevada to. We would have won the popular vote if we had nominated Trump. But there seems to be an addiction my party to the farthest right extremist candidates.

That's the problem, I am part of the solution.
Badger I love you but come to the Democrats please
nah, we need a viable opposition party if the reps burn and crash; and badger can be part of that
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Torrain
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« Reply #1664 on: March 13, 2018, 08:20:51 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.
ugh
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1665 on: March 13, 2018, 08:20:53 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.

Wait, what?
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1666 on: March 13, 2018, 08:21:29 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.
Are you f**king kidding me!!!!??
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1667 on: March 13, 2018, 08:21:35 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.

Wait, what?

The needle needs precinct data not county data
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #1668 on: March 13, 2018, 08:21:46 PM »

This is exactly why I tell people to ignore models

They are useless
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1669 on: March 13, 2018, 08:21:51 PM »

Oh christ.
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Badger
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« Reply #1670 on: March 13, 2018, 08:21:55 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.
Are you f**king kidding me!!!!??
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1671 on: March 13, 2018, 08:22:07 PM »

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.
...wut...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1672 on: March 13, 2018, 08:22:21 PM »

Double eu tee eff?!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1673 on: March 13, 2018, 08:22:26 PM »

Guess we're getting a county dump.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1674 on: March 13, 2018, 08:22:32 PM »

Saccone now leading in Westmoreland 56-44 with 53% reporting. Fairly weak, IMO.
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