PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197739 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1550 on: March 13, 2018, 07:58:20 PM »

Saccone now favored in the needle. This is why you don't celebrate too early.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1551 on: March 13, 2018, 07:58:26 PM »

Still early. Calm down.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1552 on: March 13, 2018, 07:58:40 PM »

There is no way Westmoreland is going to save him.
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TNcon4
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« Reply #1553 on: March 13, 2018, 07:58:56 PM »

Saccone(54%) +0.8 (NYT)
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Torrain
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« Reply #1554 on: March 13, 2018, 07:59:12 PM »

Quote
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1555 on: March 13, 2018, 07:59:13 PM »

Everyone seems a bit calmer than past elections, actually
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Badger
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« Reply #1556 on: March 13, 2018, 07:59:27 PM »

Why does NYT have Saccone ahead in projection?

Admittedly, I am confused by this since lamb seems to be universally beating his benchmarks.
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swf541
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« Reply #1557 on: March 13, 2018, 07:59:32 PM »

Saccone now favored in the needle. This is why you don't celebrate too early.

The entire thing is thrown off for better or worse by westmoreland not having any votes til 9:30
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1558 on: March 13, 2018, 07:59:44 PM »

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1559 on: March 13, 2018, 07:59:54 PM »


What was the second one? I don't see it on NYT. They're projecting all remaining Greene precincts for Saccone so would be interesting.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1560 on: March 13, 2018, 08:00:06 PM »

Looks like Saccone has this...
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1561 on: March 13, 2018, 08:00:11 PM »

Why does NYT have Saccone ahead in projection?

My guess is that if relative turnout between urban and rural areas matched 2016, it would be even. Because the precincts that have come in have been predominantly urban, it's probably skewing their model to think turnout is up everywhere. Once A few more rural precincts come in with lower turnout, it will swing in Lamb's favor.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #1562 on: March 13, 2018, 08:00:15 PM »


Yes.
There is a link, right underneath the needle, so you can turn off the jitter.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1563 on: March 13, 2018, 08:00:48 PM »


Why ? No results in from Westmoreland yet... not clear he will be saved by Westmoreland ...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1564 on: March 13, 2018, 08:01:01 PM »

Saccone getting good numbers in his old Elizabeth district is helping him on the needle.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1565 on: March 13, 2018, 08:01:17 PM »

Saccone now favored by 1.8 in the needle.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1566 on: March 13, 2018, 08:01:21 PM »

Saccone up to 59% in the needle...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1567 on: March 13, 2018, 08:02:10 PM »

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #1568 on: March 13, 2018, 08:02:21 PM »


Huh?
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #1569 on: March 13, 2018, 08:02:31 PM »

Saccone up to 58% in the needle...

This makes absolutely no sense at all.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1570 on: March 13, 2018, 08:02:45 PM »

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?


He was even though I did not buy it at the time.  I do not buy it now ...
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #1571 on: March 13, 2018, 08:03:04 PM »

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?

Multiple times. Right before the Montgomery-Birmingham vote dump right at the end, he was at +5.
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Doimper
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« Reply #1572 on: March 13, 2018, 08:03:09 PM »

Holy sh**t, guys, the needle isn't everything.

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?


Yeah, for a while.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1573 on: March 13, 2018, 08:03:20 PM »

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?


He was early, but not by this much.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1574 on: March 13, 2018, 08:03:24 PM »

I will never trust the fu**** needle
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