PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197621 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1425 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:08 PM »

FIRST RESULT FROM ALLEGHANY SHOWS LAMB LEADING BY 5 IN DISTRICT TRUMP WON BY 15.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #1426 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:29 PM »

Do these numbers really tell us anything?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1427 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:33 PM »

Conor Lamb
Democrat
240   52.5%
Rick Saccone
Republican
215   47.0
Drew Miller
Libertarian
2   0.4
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1428 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:37 PM »

240-215 LAMB
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Hollywood756
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« Reply #1429 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:39 PM »

Russians financing third parties again, spoiling the vote for republicans this time. At least Vlad is fair.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1430 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:44 PM »


seriously, damn it
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Badger
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« Reply #1431 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:49 PM »

I'm not quite sure why CNN put Santorum on their panel.

A. Pennsylvania. B. Regular on CNN.

And former representative for the,south hills portion of the district
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Sestak
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« Reply #1432 on: March 13, 2018, 07:29:06 PM »

 240 215 2
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1433 on: March 13, 2018, 07:29:11 PM »

Lamb is ahead of his benchmark in the one precinct that has come in.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1434 on: March 13, 2018, 07:29:20 PM »

absolutely nothing since they are fake
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Sestak
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« Reply #1435 on: March 13, 2018, 07:30:06 PM »

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1436 on: March 13, 2018, 07:30:12 PM »


yeah the fake numbers came in right before the real ones, messing with everyone.
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kph14
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« Reply #1437 on: March 13, 2018, 07:30:33 PM »

Greene 2/22
Lamb 212
Saccone 196
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1438 on: March 13, 2018, 07:31:01 PM »

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

Apparently Trump won that one by 15, so that's a big swing.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1439 on: March 13, 2018, 07:31:33 PM »

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1440 on: March 13, 2018, 07:31:47 PM »

Conor Lamb
Democrat
452   52.0%
Rick Saccone
Republican
411   47.2
Drew Miller
Libertarian
7   0.8
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1441 on: March 13, 2018, 07:32:30 PM »


Yeah my thoughs are coming true, lamb looks to be overpreforming in Greene/Washington to his benchmarks, will probably underpreform in Westmoreland. For referance, NYt benchmarks had no winning precincts in greene.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1442 on: March 13, 2018, 07:33:17 PM »

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.

Apparently it's a precinct that both Casey and Wolf lost too.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1443 on: March 13, 2018, 07:33:33 PM »

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny

Using a slightly different method, I get D+11 in Allegheny, R+11 in Westmoreland, and R+12 in Greene (still R+2 in Washington). Still nowhere near 538's numbers.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1444 on: March 13, 2018, 07:33:57 PM »

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.

Apparently it's a district that both Casey and Wolf lost too.

Yep - it's affluent col ed, so I would think that this result may be deceptively better for Lamb than a simple comparison would show.
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Badger
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« Reply #1445 on: March 13, 2018, 07:34:25 PM »

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.

Apparently it's a district that both Casey and Wolf lost too.

Whoa! THAT says a lot.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1446 on: March 13, 2018, 07:34:39 PM »

Conor Lamb
Democrat
744   52.0%
Rick Saccone
Republican
677   47.3
Drew Miller
Libertarian
11   0.8
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1447 on: March 13, 2018, 07:35:11 PM »

744-677
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #1448 on: March 13, 2018, 07:35:24 PM »

Which Atlas member was it, who didn't trust the NYT numbers (at all) during the Alabama Senate (Moore) election, and kept "making a call" that Moore had already won hours before the numbers were all in?
This member was moded, corroded, candy-coated about the entire incident.

Has these member made any predictions for this election?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1449 on: March 13, 2018, 07:35:42 PM »

F**k yeah GREENE COUNTY! THAT'S MY BLUE DOGS!
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