PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 194923 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1200 on: March 13, 2018, 03:41:58 PM »

If I read “GA-06” or “Jon Ossoff” one more time...
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1201 on: March 13, 2018, 03:43:39 PM »

If people want to vote they will vote at end of the day. If people don't want to vote then they won't vote. I doesn't matter if there is bad weather or long lines odds are they were never going to vote in the first place. People need to stop giving people excuses for just being lazy.

Not everyone can wait in line for hours. Some people have to pick up the kids, go between 2 jobs, etc...
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1202 on: March 13, 2018, 03:47:59 PM »


Good for Lamb, Steele?
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Truvinny
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« Reply #1203 on: March 13, 2018, 03:48:17 PM »

I keep hearing that turnout is high all accross the district. According to Monmouth, that bodes very well for Lamb.
I can't help but get a bit of a GA-06 flasback though. Yes high turnout favored Lamb in Monmouth but that is 1 poll
Days before election:
Ossoff- losing momentum
Lamb- gaining momentum
I don't see a similarity.

This.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1204 on: March 13, 2018, 03:52:47 PM »

I don't think that's right @Oryx. The red-republicans, blue-democrats color scheme was in use during 90s election coverage.
Nope, it only came to be in 2000 when all major networks used red-GOP blue-Dem. And then we had to stare at that map every day for another six weeks, so it kind of got ingrained in our heads.

It used to be the networks flipped back-and-forth between the two colors and two parties.
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Babeuf
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« Reply #1205 on: March 13, 2018, 03:56:40 PM »

If people want to vote they will vote at end of the day. If people don't want to vote then they won't vote. I doesn't matter if there is bad weather or long lines odds are they were never going to vote in the first place. People need to stop giving people excuses for just being lazy.

Not everyone can wait in line for hours. Some people have to pick up the kids, go between 2 jobs, etc...
Agreed. Long lines to vote are awful when preventable. They exclude people, especially working-class people, from the democratic process.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1206 on: March 13, 2018, 03:57:04 PM »

Turnout in Westmoreland county might be slipping:

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henster
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« Reply #1207 on: March 13, 2018, 03:58:26 PM »

Would have hoped for at least 40% in Allegheny, the snow has probably shaved 1-2% off of Lamb’s vote.
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Truvinny
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« Reply #1208 on: March 13, 2018, 03:59:45 PM »

Turnout in Westmoreland county might be slipping:



Westmoreland is heavily Republican.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1209 on: March 13, 2018, 04:01:00 PM »

Would have hoped for at least 40% in Allegheny, the snow has probably shaved 1-2% off of Lamb’s vote.

Lol no
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ExSky
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« Reply #1210 on: March 13, 2018, 04:01:56 PM »

Republicans having to pour 10 million+ into this, and outspending Lamb atleast 2 to 1 in an easy district, just to be trailing is not good....what’s going to happen on November 6
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Badger
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« Reply #1211 on: March 13, 2018, 04:03:02 PM »

Also:





Mount Lebanon is of course the one Democratic stronghold in the Allegheny portion of this district, and IRC Lambs home town.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1212 on: March 13, 2018, 04:03:30 PM »

Anyways, Westmoreland having a slightly higher turnout than Allegheny is no big deal since the latter has more voters. But Allegheny having a higher turnout would certainly be more reassuring.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1213 on: March 13, 2018, 04:03:40 PM »

Also:





Mount Lebanon is of course the one Democratic stronghold in the Allegheny portion of this district, and IRC Lambs home town.

Yes he'll get 70%+ there.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1214 on: March 13, 2018, 04:04:45 PM »

More good news for Lamb-

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Holmes
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« Reply #1215 on: March 13, 2018, 04:05:04 PM »

henster is the new LimoLiberal.
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ExSky
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« Reply #1216 on: March 13, 2018, 04:05:34 PM »

Would have hoped for at least 40% in Allegheny, the snow has probably shaved 1-2% off of Lamb’s vote.

Bad weather keeps the old people home, not the young people
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1217 on: March 13, 2018, 04:06:29 PM »

Bad weather only deters those who aren't very enthusiastic about their candidate. In this election, that candidate is clearly Saccone.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1218 on: March 13, 2018, 04:08:35 PM »

So with the exceeding turnout we are seeing, this election should be leaning more towards the "High Turnout" model Monmouth gave us. But, Allegheny exceeding expectations does increase the changes of the "Surge" model. IMO
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1219 on: March 13, 2018, 04:08:54 PM »

Yeah I'm getting to a point where I'll be really shocked if Lamb loses
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1220 on: March 13, 2018, 04:10:19 PM »

I can't help but think that Lamb needs more out of Allegheny if Westmoreland is keeping pace with it, but we will see in a few hours...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1221 on: March 13, 2018, 04:11:47 PM »

Yeah I'm getting to a point where I'll be really shocked if Lamb loses

We should still remain cautiously optimistic. Saccone could still win, but turnout exceeding expectations makes that very hard to believe. Let's also remember Monmouth has an A+ rating from 538 and they said that Conor should win by a comfortable margin if turnout is high.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1222 on: March 13, 2018, 04:12:49 PM »

I can't help but think that Lamb needs more out of Allegheny if Westmoreland is keeping pace with it, but we will see in a few hours...

Remember that Allegheny has way more voters than Westmoreland. Also, Westmoreland has a lot of Trump Democrats in it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1223 on: March 13, 2018, 04:15:33 PM »

I can't help but think that Lamb needs more out of Allegheny if Westmoreland is keeping pace with it, but we will see in a few hours...

Reports have indicated that Allegheny (above 30%) is higher than they thought and Westmoreland (lower than 30%) is lower than they thought.

Obviously this could all change and/or be wrong.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1224 on: March 13, 2018, 04:16:34 PM »



I fail to see how Saccone would win with turnout exceeding expectations.
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