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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127645 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1125 on: March 13, 2018, 12:21:59 pm »

Also, the NYT live page is up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1126 on: March 13, 2018, 12:24:03 pm »

Republican insiders expect Conor Lamb to win tonight.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/03/13/district-18-Special-election-pennsylvania-house-Conor-Lamb-Rick-Saccone-congress-tim-murphy/stories/201803120128

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Ridin' with Biden
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« Reply #1127 on: March 13, 2018, 12:24:32 pm »


Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

The maps for this site were made all the way back in 1996, before the 2000 election. Back in the 80's and 90's different networks used different colors for Democrats and Republicans.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #1128 on: March 13, 2018, 12:26:40 pm »

Republican insiders expect Conor Lamb to win tonight.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/03/13/district-18-Special-election-pennsylvania-house-Conor-Lamb-Rick-Saccone-congress-tim-murphy/stories/201803120128




Muh, heavy Republican lean...muh, MAGA...muh!!
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DTC
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« Reply #1129 on: March 13, 2018, 12:33:27 pm »

I think y'all are getting a little too excited. I like how people in this thread are way more confident about PA-18 than they were about Virginia.
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Mondale
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« Reply #1130 on: March 13, 2018, 12:34:43 pm »

Election betting odds has Conner taking off:



https://electionbettingodds.com
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1131 on: March 13, 2018, 12:35:44 pm »

Conor's up to 70 on PredictIt
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #1132 on: March 13, 2018, 12:37:53 pm »

Republican insiders expect Conor Lamb to win tonight.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/03/13/district-18-Special-election-pennsylvania-house-Conor-Lamb-Rick-Saccone-congress-tim-murphy/stories/201803120128



I'm not sure if Politico understands that it's in the interest of the GOP to downplay Saccone's chances as much as possible, regardless of whether they think he'll win
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1133 on: March 13, 2018, 12:38:57 pm »

I think y'all are getting a little too excited. I like how people in this thread are way more confident about PA-18 than they were about Virginia.

I still got Saccone winning.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1134 on: March 13, 2018, 12:40:24 pm »

Lambslide?
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1135 on: March 13, 2018, 12:40:40 pm »

Lamb's gonna win guys. I don't understand the denial.

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JG
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« Reply #1136 on: March 13, 2018, 12:41:11 pm »

It's stupid but the overconfidence is making me less and less confident.
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YE
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« Reply #1137 on: March 13, 2018, 12:43:15 pm »

It's stupid but the overconfidence is making me less and less confident.

Yea especially Steel seems cocky. He may be right but there are a lot of unknowns as this point and this is still a fairly hard district for Dems to win.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #1138 on: March 13, 2018, 12:44:23 pm »

If we were getting the same reports about Saccone that we're getting for Lamb this forum would be declaring the race over.
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JG
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« Reply #1139 on: March 13, 2018, 12:45:55 pm »

It's stupid but the overconfidence is making me less and less confident.

Yea especially Steel seems cocky. He may be right but there are a lot of unknowns as this point and this is still a fairly hard district for Dems to win.

Yes. I'm still burned from turnout reports that were saying that there was no way HRC would lose this.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1140 on: March 13, 2018, 12:47:26 pm »

R's definitely want to downplay but there is no reason they would let bad polling data out unless it's true and they are ripping the bandaid off
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1141 on: March 13, 2018, 12:47:39 pm »

It's stupid but the overconfidence is making me less and less confident.

Yea especially Steel seems cocky. He may be right but there are a lot of unknowns as this point and this is still a fairly hard district for Dems to win.

Yes. I'm still burned from turnout reports that were saying that there was no way HRC would lose this.

But the atmosphere is different, the candidates are different, etc.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #1142 on: March 13, 2018, 12:47:58 pm »

If we were getting the same reports about Saccone that we're getting for Lamb this forum would be declaring the race over.

Yeah because itís a R+11 district. Sac one is supposed to win.
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JG
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« Reply #1143 on: March 13, 2018, 12:50:04 pm »

It's stupid but the overconfidence is making me less and less confident.

Yea especially Steel seems cocky. He may be right but there are a lot of unknowns as this point and this is still a fairly hard district for Dems to win.

Yes. I'm still burned from turnout reports that were saying that there was no way HRC would lose this.

But the atmosphere is different, the candidates are different, etc.

I know. And part of my reaction is completly irrational. I just don't like to get my hopes up anymore. Especially in a R+11 district. I prefer to be cautious and pleasantly surprised.
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henster
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« Reply #1144 on: March 13, 2018, 12:52:06 pm »

Did a tarot reading this morning and I'm expecting a Saccone win of 3-5 points.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1145 on: March 13, 2018, 12:53:12 pm »

I'm just saying that with the environment, the candidate quality, and the data that's rolling out, I'm growing more confident of a Lamb victory.
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Hollywood756
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« Reply #1146 on: March 13, 2018, 12:57:48 pm »

I'm concerned about the news of the day- not much oxygen for the lamb race to have to breathe, but I'm not in the district. Lamb is hoping for low-R, high-D turnout.  Does this news cycle help or hurt?
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1147 on: March 13, 2018, 12:57:53 pm »

Red avatars on here are being wayyy too pessimistic.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1148 on: March 13, 2018, 12:58:45 pm »

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JG
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« Reply #1149 on: March 13, 2018, 12:59:17 pm »

I'm just saying that with the environment, the candidate quality, and the data that's rolling out, I'm growing more confident of a Lamb victory.

Oh, I agree those are good signs, but I'm just too cautious to be convinded he will win until the AP declares it.
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