|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 27, 2020, 10:28:21 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 ... 103
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 133498 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,720
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #975 on: March 12, 2018, 01:03:46 PM »

A +20 favorable rating in a usually R+25 district is pretty good.

Lamb seems to win this thing tomorrow.
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,342
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #976 on: March 12, 2018, 01:11:07 PM »

Man, I hope Lamb can pull this out.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #977 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:05 PM »





Even after the Trump rally and even with them polling more Republican friendly areas, Lamb's lead stayed stable.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,006
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #978 on: March 12, 2018, 01:15:42 PM »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,921
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #979 on: March 12, 2018, 01:18:54 PM »

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,650
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #980 on: March 12, 2018, 01:22:41 PM »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)

Beat me to it. Wink
Logged
Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,448


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #981 on: March 12, 2018, 01:49:20 PM »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,921
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #982 on: March 12, 2018, 01:50:51 PM »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
Logged
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,539
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #983 on: March 12, 2018, 01:51:25 PM »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

Lmao
Logged
Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #984 on: March 12, 2018, 01:56:51 PM »

www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from 4 percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.

RNC internals show Saccone down.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,543
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #985 on: March 12, 2018, 02:17:54 PM »

I can envision a 3-4 point Lamb win. This race really got away from Republicans in recent weeks (though I don't think they were always heavily favored as some people think). Saccone has been a poor candidate and Lamb's exceeded expectations.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,590
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #986 on: March 12, 2018, 02:27:13 PM »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,931
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #987 on: March 12, 2018, 02:30:18 PM »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,420


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #988 on: March 12, 2018, 02:34:10 PM »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,560
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #989 on: March 12, 2018, 02:35:10 PM »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.

The infallible Mind Model ™
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,590
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #990 on: March 12, 2018, 02:52:51 PM »



This should have been on his billboards everywhere.
Logged
The Hunt for the Red October Surprises
Fubart Solman
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,240
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #991 on: March 12, 2018, 02:58:26 PM »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,292
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #992 on: March 12, 2018, 03:22:28 PM »

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,560
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #993 on: March 12, 2018, 03:26:06 PM »

Future federal inmate Don Jr weighs in:

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #994 on: March 12, 2018, 03:28:10 PM »

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

You're taking the low turnout poll option?
Logged
Questionable Intent
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,602
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #995 on: March 12, 2018, 03:28:28 PM »

Looking at statewide returns from 2012-2014 for the past five elections for state races (Gov, AG, Senate, Auditor & Treasurer), the Democrat has averaged 45.2% of the vote in this district. It's not unfathomable at all to see him easily clearing 50 now that I've seen these figures.
Logged
History505
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #996 on: March 12, 2018, 04:01:10 PM »

Going to be one interesting night tomorrow...
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,560
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #997 on: March 12, 2018, 04:06:17 PM »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,415
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #998 on: March 12, 2018, 04:33:01 PM »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,006
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #999 on: March 12, 2018, 04:36:03 PM »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

-snip-

Well that is because in 2014 he was pretty unpopular by modern standards - something like 40% approve / 51-52% disapprove, so even still lower than Trump. In 2010, he was breaking even around 45-45. However, the thing is, Democrats are at a clear disadvantage in the states, and the South still had a ton of Democrats in state offices, so it didn't take a deeply unpopular Democratic president to cause a massive loss of legislative seats. It just took one like Obama, who was straddling the line, and also represented a (small) break from the more Bill Clinton-like centrist approach. Democrats were very much over-extended after 2006 and 2008, and all it took was a midterm or two under a Democratic president to wipe out those gains. This is kind of why I don't like the "we lost 900-1000 legislative seats under Obama..." thing. It's a bit misleading, and attempts to explain a complex electoral situation by a snappy one-liner that doesn't answer the question in full.

So my thoughts are that approval ratings do matter. Presidents with 40% approval ratings are going to have a hard time getting re-elected (or elected in the first place at 40% favorable) unless their opponent is just as unpopular. In fact, if Trump is hovering around 37-38% approval in 2020, I do think it gives another opportunity for a wave. It's only if Trump maintains a consistent upper-40s / low-50s approval that I think he might have a shot, just like any other president with similar ratings. But I don't expect him to have those kinds of numbers in 2020. He's not capable of changing what he needs to change to achieve it.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 ... 103  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.