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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127815 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #925 on: March 12, 2018, 09:05:41 am »

Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?

I figured the general primary thread would replace this ones sticky spot after 3/13.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #926 on: March 12, 2018, 09:29:40 am »

Sounds like this should stay stickied through Wednesday.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #927 on: March 12, 2018, 09:51:08 am »

Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

I saw that Lamb did a big event yesterday with the President of the Miners Union, and seems to be banking on their support. The Trump era has really seem to brought them back into prominence (after the Democrats ran away from them during the Bush years)
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« Reply #928 on: March 12, 2018, 09:56:31 am »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 10:00:26 am by PittsburghSteel »

I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #929 on: March 12, 2018, 10:17:30 am »

I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...

Do we know when it will be released?
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #930 on: March 12, 2018, 10:19:59 am »

I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...

Do we know when it will be released?

Last week they released they're Trump approval poll on CNN at 1pm.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #931 on: March 12, 2018, 10:24:14 am »

What time do the polls close tomorrow?
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Holmes
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« Reply #932 on: March 12, 2018, 10:25:12 am »

What time do the polls close tomorrow?

Polls are open from 7 am to 8 pm EST.
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« Reply #933 on: March 12, 2018, 10:30:56 am »

Monmouth releases 1:00 EST
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Gass3268
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« Reply #934 on: March 12, 2018, 10:36:24 am »

It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:







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« Reply #935 on: March 12, 2018, 10:38:09 am »

It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #936 on: March 12, 2018, 10:40:14 am »

It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.

I think you read the tweets wrong.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #937 on: March 12, 2018, 10:42:25 am »

It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.

I think you read the tweets wrong.

Looks like I did. 😳
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Torrain
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« Reply #938 on: March 12, 2018, 10:47:41 am »


Whatever the result, I just hope it's on the mark.
I would hate for it to show Lamb up a couple of points, shifting the BREAKING NEWS narrative and causing the Blitzer's and Cizilla's to go into TITANIUM D mode, only for him to narrowly lose tomorrow. It's obvious that a narrow loss has the same implications as a narrow Lamb win, but a loss would lead to a deluge of THE WAVE IS DEAD hottakes, that could damage fundraising and morale for rural dem candidates like Ojeda.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #939 on: March 12, 2018, 10:50:48 am »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.
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Torrain
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« Reply #940 on: March 12, 2018, 11:02:00 am »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #941 on: March 12, 2018, 11:45:27 am »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.
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Arch
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« Reply #942 on: March 12, 2018, 11:46:46 am »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.

Absolutely, and the sweet irony of Trump being put in a similar position Obama was would be the icing on the cake.
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Torrain
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« Reply #943 on: March 12, 2018, 11:55:55 am »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.

Absolutely, and the sweet irony of Trump being put in a similar position Obama was would be the icing on the cake.

Oh hands down,  it would an amazing night. It's just that the cognitive dissonance is exasperating.
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marty
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« Reply #944 on: March 12, 2018, 11:55:59 am »

Why is Saccone on the ropes when these pa-18 polls
Show trump around 52% approval in the district?
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Torrain
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« Reply #945 on: March 12, 2018, 11:57:31 am »

Quote
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Here we go...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #946 on: March 12, 2018, 12:00:33 pm »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44


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Brittain33
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« Reply #947 on: March 12, 2018, 12:01:13 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 12:06:16 pm by Brittain33 »

Looks like Republicans aren't trying to fake set expectations

Predictit is now pricing Lamb at 64c a pound
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Holmes
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« Reply #948 on: March 12, 2018, 12:06:04 pm »

I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.
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« Reply #949 on: March 12, 2018, 12:08:52 pm »

I am ecstatic! Of course it's just a poll and not the actual Election Day results, but the momentum has been with Conor for the past couple of weeks and I cannot imagine how Saccone will win now.
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