PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:52:59 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 28 29 30 31 32 [33] 34 35 36 37 38 ... 103
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 194911 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #800 on: March 10, 2018, 02:07:30 PM »

The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart
What's the needle?
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #801 on: March 10, 2018, 02:10:39 PM »


Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #802 on: March 10, 2018, 02:16:19 PM »


Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #803 on: March 10, 2018, 02:31:02 PM »


Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.

Don't we have Limo's mind model now?
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #804 on: March 10, 2018, 02:35:38 PM »


Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.

Don't we have Limo's mind model now?

Some people with play with model trains, limos analysis is the equivalent of a model train wreck.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #805 on: March 10, 2018, 02:50:15 PM »

The needle did not betray us in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #806 on: March 10, 2018, 03:00:34 PM »

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?
Logged
Cold War Liberal
KennedyWannabe99
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.53

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #807 on: March 10, 2018, 03:01:35 PM »

I accidentally ingested some of Fox News's content earlier today at the gym. They said that there are 70,000 more Democrats in the district than Republicans, then said that the race was surprisingly close despite this. That makes it sound like Saccone is overperforming, not Lamb. They never mentioned that Trump won the district by double digits. Damn, they're good at spin, and I highly doubt their main viewers would bother to look of the CPI index of 2016 election results for PA-18.

Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #808 on: March 10, 2018, 03:08:58 PM »

The needle did not betray us in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.

Wasn't the problem in 2016 mostly about how hard some suburbs and small cities in Kentucky and Indiana swung to Clinton?  I remember it had Clinton up by 5ish nationwide when those were the only states reporting.  Obviously, that didn't replicate with similar sized counties elsewhere in the Midwest.
Logged
Joey1996
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,986


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #809 on: March 10, 2018, 05:11:15 PM »

How does Pelosi feel about Lamb?
Logged
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #810 on: March 10, 2018, 06:23:32 PM »

Pittsburgh Post Gazette to endorse Saccone
https://mobile.twitter.com/colin_deppen/status/972607951495159808
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #811 on: March 10, 2018, 06:28:09 PM »


For reference, they also pseudo-endorsed Trump in 2016: https://theincline.com/2016/11/07/pittsburgh-critics-blast-post-gazette-pseudo-trump-endorsement/
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #812 on: March 10, 2018, 06:28:52 PM »


I was about to say that. Anyways, the bulk of the undecideds have probably already committed to Lamb.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #813 on: March 10, 2018, 06:44:29 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2018, 06:47:47 PM by PittsburghSteel »

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #814 on: March 10, 2018, 06:47:23 PM »

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

As if the country is going nowhere under the Republicans.

Are they the same guys that posted that explicitly racist editorial?

I wouldn't be surprised.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #815 on: March 10, 2018, 06:52:43 PM »

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.

The only really solidly Dem stronghold within the Allegheny portion of the district is Mount Lebanon Township (13% of the CD-18 vote within Allegheny) which went (61-34) HRC in 2016.

Scott Township (5% of Allegheny CD-18 vote 2016) is a Lean Dem place that went (52-44 HRC) in 2016...

Really the battles for a large win the Allegheny County portion of the district for Lamb will involve a double digit win in marginal Trump parts of Allegheny (Bethel Park, Moon, South Fayette, Upton St Clair, Whitehall, etc).

If Lamb is really polling within +/- a few points from the 'Pub he will also need to keep 'Pub margins down to 10-15% in Washington County, and although I haven't crunched the precinct numbers for the CD-18 portion of the County, overall the County was 35-60 Trump in '16, but 42-56 Romney in '12, and 47-52 Obama in '08....

Greene County will be interesting to see if a large number of Obama '08 voters come home to Lamb in '18.... County was virtually tied in '08, swung hard Romney in '12 (40-58 R), and in 2016       
(28-68 R) R.

Personally, I think Greene County will stick with any 'Pub (Even against local relatively popular Dem candidates) so long as Trump is President....

Not so sure on Westmoreland yet, since I haven't really had a chance to look closer at the County and which parts of the County fall within which CDs, etc....

Still, I believe the election will be won or lost for the Dem candidate based upon a combination of the raw vote margins out of the Allegheny portion of the district, combined with the extent of the swings in Washington County.

One item to note regarding these special elections, is that just as we observed in AL-SEN '17 election, is that the race was won as a result of a combination of:

1.) High levels of Dem turnout in their base areas
2.) Depressed Pub turnout in their base areas
3.) Cross-Over voters in Middle and Upper Middle-Class White precincts and municipalities in close proximity to the larger Metro areas of the State, as well as older retirees along the Gulf Coast

The wildcard here is to what if any extent is this election nationalized in terms of Tribal voting patterns, and *HOW* that might play out if this is the case....

Trump's policy announcement on Steel Tariffs might well be enough to push the 'Pub over the finish line and show skeptical former Steelworkers that he isn't afraid to buck the Neo-Liberal Republican economic agenda on Trade Policy, even as elsewhere in WWC America Trump's popularity is fading fast.

It is interesting to note that the two special elections where Trump got involved includes two of the major historical Steel Production centers of the United States (Birmingham Alabama and Pittsburgh PA).... in the case of the former, Trump's vote share collapsed even among the heavily White precincts of Bessemer Alabama (Major Steel working Town 25 Miles from Birmingham).

Anyways hope to be back and post some municipal level numbers based on precinct data before Tuesday's election to see what the tea leaves might tell us based upon historical data....
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #816 on: March 10, 2018, 06:56:23 PM »

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #817 on: March 10, 2018, 06:58:06 PM »

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials

Where did I indicate that anyone did?
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #818 on: March 10, 2018, 06:59:03 PM »

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials

Where did I indicate that anyone did?

Good point. Sorry
Logged
Rhenna
Gabor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 625
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #819 on: March 10, 2018, 07:20:31 PM »

Sadly Saccone is giving me Gianforte tease the more this race is covered nationally.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #820 on: March 10, 2018, 07:24:03 PM »

Trump is an awful surrogate. So far he's mentioned Chuck Todd and Lester Holt just as much as Rick Saccone.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #821 on: March 10, 2018, 07:24:41 PM »

Trump is currently speaking in Moon Township, Pennsylvania...

2016 Results:

5589 HRC   (42.7%)   6894 DJT   (52.7%)   8.1% of Allegheny County CD-18 2016 Pres Votes
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #822 on: March 10, 2018, 07:28:07 PM »

Trump is currently speaking in Moon Township, Pennsylvania...

2016 Results:

5589 HRC   (42.7%)   6894 DJT   (52.7%)   8.1% of Allegheny County CD-18 2016 Pres Votes


This is also where Lamb and Biden had their rally at Robert Morris University.

Also Trump is now attacking Oprah.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #823 on: March 10, 2018, 07:31:49 PM »

Oh, that guy is having a rally? Gross.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #824 on: March 10, 2018, 07:39:33 PM »

Trump now attacking Ronald Reagan on trade.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 28 29 30 31 32 [33] 34 35 36 37 38 ... 103  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 12 queries.