PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197640 times)
Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #775 on: March 09, 2018, 03:57:34 PM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Uneducated whites were 44% of the electorate. Exit polls vastly overpoll college educated voters. Center for american progress has a good article about this. Nate Cohn too
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Gass3268
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« Reply #776 on: March 09, 2018, 04:58:04 PM »

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #777 on: March 09, 2018, 05:03:03 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2018, 05:08:07 PM by PittsburghSteel »


Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or lose, but winning this race will make the election in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #778 on: March 09, 2018, 05:03:42 PM »


Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

Getting Doug Jones vibes all over again.
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windjammer
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« Reply #779 on: March 09, 2018, 05:05:12 PM »


Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.
I mean,
I mean, the PA dem branch isn't particularly strong and there will be an open seat in 2022.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #780 on: March 09, 2018, 05:08:52 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2018, 05:12:33 PM by PittsburghSteel »


Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.
I mean,
I mean, the PA dem branch isn't particularly strong and there will be an open seat in 2022.

Conor is a very strong candidate, that's for damn sure, but what makes you think Toomey won't run for a third term in 2022?

Besides political views, he is quite literally the polar opposite of Katie McGinty.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #781 on: March 09, 2018, 05:11:16 PM »

Conor Lamb is almost certainly the best candidate of the several that Democrats have run in federal special elections.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #782 on: March 09, 2018, 05:27:06 PM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.

Definitions of "College Educated" can get a bit murky, depending upon what standards one uses, but it does appear the CD-18 is more educated in terms of attainment than PA as a whole, with 44% of the population >25 having an advanced degree beyond a HS Diploma...



There are several things to consider here:

1.) Many Working Class / Blue Collar Occupations now require some type of vocational education (Nurses, Law Enforcement, Teachers, Electricians, etc....), so the 44% of College Educated population in this district seems reasonable, especially considering the relative size and composition of the Health Care sector within what is a CD that is older than the population of PA (18% 65+ and 41% 50+  within this district!!!!).



2.) This 44% does not include the "some College" category....

3.) As a followup to point # 2, educational attainment is one of those items where people frequently tend to fudge the data a bit when it comes to election polling, since many people consider themselves college educated if they have taken some various classes at community colleges/ online professional certifications, etc..., and certainly Voc-Ed for many working class folks that don't have a history of four year Diplomas in their family is one major way to move ahead into a better paying job, especially when you start rolling into your '30s with things like kids, mortages, etc....

4.) So regardless of how this particular poll used an LV/RV screening model for turnout in a Special Election, it would not be unreasonable to see 50% of voters in this district consider themselves College Educated...

5.) Who knows that turnout will look like in this election, but it would certainly be interesting once we have the precinct results, or if someone can run the Pres results from '16 by township against Educational Attainment (Maps too large for me to snip on my laptop) to see if there are any correlations.

https://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Pennsylvania/District-18/Educational-Attainment#data-map/county-subdivision

6.) Completely anecdotal and OT but I live in a Factory town in "downstate Oregon" and a Trump '16 County, which used to have a major United Steelworkers of America presence (USW), until the workers went out on strike against their employer trying to gut their medical plan. The employer shuttered the plant and shifted operations another plant they had in PA (Not sure offhand where) and interestingly enough I haven't heard much talk at all about Trump's Steel/Aluminum Tariff plan around here. Wildcard how and if this will play in PA-18 among those older locals that actually stuck around after the Steel Industry collapsed in SW PA in areas around McKeesport and the like.

I have absolutely no interest in attempting to skew/unskew any polls on this wildcard election, in what to me looks like it will be a jump ballgame that could easily go either way, just wanted to throw out some data on educational attainment, and yeah it looks like Nate Cohn might be barking up the wrong tree a bit on focusing on the educational attainment aspect of this poll....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #783 on: March 09, 2018, 06:00:34 PM »


Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or lose, but winning this race will make the election in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

WOW!!!! 

Likely an ad with a powerful local impact, and additional portable/transferable to other WWC Blue Collar Trump districts throughout the US, since these types of statement expose the hypocrisy of many House 'Pubs when it comes to substance abuse issues, that disproportionately impacts working class Americans in both Democratic and Republican districts of all races, ethnic backgrounds and regions.

This is "Deer Hunter" Country....

For many of y'all not familiar with the reference it is about one of the first Movies about Vietnam starring Robert DeNiro set in Western PA (Clairton which if it isn't in CD-18 is right over the CD line) involving a close-knit group of young Steel Workers, and this part of PA has one of the highest % of Vietnam Vets of just about anywhere in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Deer_Hunter

Heroin/Opium addiction first started to hit critical mass in the US as Vietnam Vets came home from the war, after having been exposed or used Opiates to numb themselves from the horrors of war and PTSD upon their return home from the war.

It is not coincidental that Opiate addiction in the US has ticked up dramatically in recent years in regions where there were historically some of the largest concentrations of Vietnam Vets.

To close up, here is a song that I own written by John Prine, but here performed by Johnny Cash that talks about Vietnam Vets and Heroin addiction, and I encourage any of y'all that like what you heard to spend the money to buy this song on whatever platform you currently use for music...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fc2j38Ab4&list=RDz-fc2j38Ab4

Absolutely no question in my mind that this ad will hit home, especially among the older voters in the district that have been hard hit by Opiate addictions over the past 50 years from 'Nam to the present day.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #784 on: March 09, 2018, 11:24:43 PM »

Democrats have (for the most part) put up a fine lot of candidates in these special elections. Conor Lamb is no exception.
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History505
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« Reply #785 on: March 10, 2018, 10:39:39 AM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #786 on: March 10, 2018, 11:06:59 AM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

Oh how fun lol.

I wonder when we're finally going to get a quality pollster for this race. Monmouth's poll is coming out soon, but where the hell has Fox News been?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #787 on: March 10, 2018, 11:15:32 AM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

Oh how fun lol.

I wonder when we're finally going to get a quality pollster for this race. Monmouth's poll is coming out soon, but where the hell has Fox News been?

Does Fox News ever poll anything smaller than state-level races?  I don't think they polled the GA-6 special.  (The local Atlanta Fox station did, but that was using another firm.)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #788 on: March 10, 2018, 11:56:16 AM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered
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henster
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« Reply #789 on: March 10, 2018, 12:09:13 PM »

There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #790 on: March 10, 2018, 12:14:29 PM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered

The needle was our savior in Alabama tho
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Gass3268
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« Reply #791 on: March 10, 2018, 12:46:45 PM »

There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.

This is a Republican speciality. They are the best at playing the media to manage exceptions.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #792 on: March 10, 2018, 12:49:36 PM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered

The needle was our savior in Alabama tho

I'm going to need like 10 more Alabama's before I can feel comfortable again with the needle.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #793 on: March 10, 2018, 01:08:22 PM »

The needle gives me anxiety.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #794 on: March 10, 2018, 01:19:08 PM »


That's not uncommon.  Lots of people have a fear of needles.
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Doimper
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« Reply #795 on: March 10, 2018, 01:42:16 PM »

There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.
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Badger
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« Reply #796 on: March 10, 2018, 01:45:02 PM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Word for the burg.
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Badger
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« Reply #797 on: March 10, 2018, 01:53:58 PM »


That's not uncommon.  Lots of people have a fear of needles.

Tip of the Fedora there, sir. Well played indeed.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #798 on: March 10, 2018, 02:01:53 PM »

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

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« Reply #799 on: March 10, 2018, 02:03:41 PM »

The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart
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