PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197631 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #750 on: March 07, 2018, 11:21:48 PM »

Exactly why I think Lamb is going to pull this off. The momentum is clearly on his side, and the GOP's scattered message in the ads suggests that the internals are showing things they don't like.
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Badger
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« Reply #751 on: March 07, 2018, 11:48:01 PM »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.

If by that you mean you tried jumping on the bandwagon of her exquisitely funny post with some stale failed attempt at me-too humor, yeah, we know.

It just was dull.
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Holmes
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« Reply #752 on: March 09, 2018, 09:37:31 AM »

Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #753 on: March 09, 2018, 09:39:30 AM »


Holy sh*t...

Is this a real polling firm?
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Holmes
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« Reply #754 on: March 09, 2018, 09:41:58 AM »


Yes, it's RABA Research.
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windjammer
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« Reply #755 on: March 09, 2018, 09:44:56 AM »

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.
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kph14
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« Reply #756 on: March 09, 2018, 09:45:11 AM »


FWIW, 538 gives them a C+ rating
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kph14
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« Reply #757 on: March 09, 2018, 09:47:14 AM »

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.
It's all comes down to turnout. How likely are these unenthusiastic undecided voters to turn out in a special election? I think strong suburban turnout in Allegheny county will put Lamb over the top.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #758 on: March 09, 2018, 09:48:19 AM »

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.

The polls are showing Lamb getting the lion's share of undecideds.

No matter the grade, they are also consistently showing Lamb pulling ahead.
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windjammer
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« Reply #759 on: March 09, 2018, 09:49:10 AM »

Well,
I mean I predicted Roy Moore winning as well. My predictions tend to take into account too much the partisan bias of the districts.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #760 on: March 09, 2018, 10:04:50 AM »

Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #761 on: March 09, 2018, 10:07:09 AM »

Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.

I think the tariffs and amazing economic news might slow that momentum.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #762 on: March 09, 2018, 10:08:04 AM »

Yeah, this poll is questionable:

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That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which is contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #763 on: March 09, 2018, 10:09:24 AM »

Yeah, this poll is questionable:

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That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which it contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.

That's what I'm thinking. Highly educated voters are already more likely to turn out by default.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #764 on: March 09, 2018, 10:30:02 AM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #765 on: March 09, 2018, 10:31:27 AM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #766 on: March 09, 2018, 10:56:05 AM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #767 on: March 09, 2018, 11:02:05 AM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.
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swf541
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« Reply #768 on: March 09, 2018, 11:07:22 AM »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

+1, 100% agreed
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #769 on: March 09, 2018, 11:08:40 AM »

When is that Monmouth poll gonna drop?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #770 on: March 09, 2018, 11:14:48 AM »


I'm going to guess Monday.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #771 on: March 09, 2018, 11:56:06 AM »

RABA isn’t great but better than nothing
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Holmes
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« Reply #772 on: March 09, 2018, 12:46:25 PM »

Educated voters? In PA-18? It's more likely than you think.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #773 on: March 09, 2018, 01:15:23 PM »

Apparently along with unions; Conor is getting help from seniors who are breaking for him over fear of social security cuts
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Gass3268
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« Reply #774 on: March 09, 2018, 01:20:19 PM »



However:



Essentially becase Saccone can't raise any money on his own, Lamb is able to stay close because direct candidate spending gets better rates than outside groups.
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