PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197682 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #650 on: March 05, 2018, 01:04:18 PM »

I thought this was probably going to end up as a narrow Saccone win, but now it's looking like Lamb will actually win it. I'd rate it 53.5% chance of a Saccone win, 46.5% chance if a Lamb win, could go either way.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #651 on: March 05, 2018, 01:09:04 PM »

I think Lamb’s got this, he’s got all the momentum at this point. Even if he doesn’t , he will win this fall in his new district. He’s good at this and got a really bright future ahead of him.
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« Reply #652 on: March 05, 2018, 01:14:29 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #653 on: March 05, 2018, 01:17:21 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #654 on: March 05, 2018, 01:19:22 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #655 on: March 05, 2018, 01:20:50 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.
Speaking of carpetbaggers like Ossoff, does Gil Cisneros (D-Newport Beach) have a good chance of winning in CA-39?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #656 on: March 05, 2018, 01:22:17 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.

You're right. RealClearPolitics does have polls showing Ossoff was ahead, but they show that his support waned over time, and by election day, Handel had the advantage. We are seeing the opposite happen here. Support for Saccone is waning.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #657 on: March 05, 2018, 01:27:12 PM »

Ossoff would have won had that special been just a little bit later. That was pre Charlottesville, pre healthcare, and pre tax reform. I don’t imagine that last one going over so well in GA 06 which has high home prices and the fact that it was laser targeted also to hurt upper middle class suburban people. The environment just wasn’t right then but I think it is now
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Brittain33
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« Reply #658 on: March 05, 2018, 01:33:52 PM »

In Ossoff, both Dems and Republicans voted like it was 2016, so Republicans won. In PA-18, it looks like Dems and Republicans will vote like it's 2017—high Dem turnout and crossover, low Republican turnout—although we won't know for certain until election day. (Or how much Republican turnout recovers for Election Day November 2018 from these dismal specials.) 
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #659 on: March 05, 2018, 01:37:49 PM »

Btw, I'm going back to campaign for Lamb today around 3ish? I'll let you all know how it goes. I'm also going to attempt to go to the GOTV rally where he and Joe Biden are rallying at Robert Morris University, which is tomorrow.

From on the ground: I do see a lot of Lamb signs in places where I saw hordes of Trump signs during the 2016 election. I've only seen about two or three Saccone signs. The guy just isn't exciting or energized.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #660 on: March 05, 2018, 01:39:31 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.

You're right. RealClearPolitics does have polls showing Ossoff was ahead, but they show that his support waned over time, and by election day, Handel had the advantage. We are seeing the opposite happen here. Support for Saccone is waning.

Very good point.
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OneJ
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« Reply #661 on: March 05, 2018, 02:03:59 PM »

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

This is exactly why I'm not getting too excited.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #662 on: March 05, 2018, 03:54:23 PM »

Before anyone comes in here to freak out about the Lamb campaign getting outspent 2-1 on TV ads:

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #663 on: March 05, 2018, 04:07:01 PM »

Phone banking right now. People are so nice and I'm so upset when they say they are voting for Suckone 😭
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« Reply #664 on: March 05, 2018, 04:09:08 PM »

Lean R

At this point, I think Saccone wins narrowly. About 0.5% margin.
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« Reply #665 on: March 05, 2018, 04:15:29 PM »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.
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« Reply #666 on: March 05, 2018, 04:19:15 PM »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.
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« Reply #667 on: March 05, 2018, 04:25:29 PM »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.
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« Reply #668 on: March 05, 2018, 04:26:23 PM »

Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.
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« Reply #669 on: March 05, 2018, 04:35:39 PM »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.

Fundamentals favor Saccone; race-specific factors favor Lamb. Usually, fundamentals win out, but Lamb has (apparently) a massive advantage in the factors you list. If he wins, it should be close.

Well obviously yes. The only thing Rick has going for him is the fact Trump won the state by 20 points and that it is a historically red district. But I'm not sure that's going to save him, and both he and Trump know that.
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Blair
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« Reply #670 on: March 05, 2018, 04:56:07 PM »

The funny thing is regardless of what happens most sides will stick to their talking points; the GOP will say that Saccone was a bad fit for the district and wasn’t a good campaigner. Expect a couple of garbled early morning tweets.

I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.

I also feel like this race is confirming that TV adverts are well not simply down to just spending millions; if Saccone loses this will be the second race after Alabama where what $10 million+ gets spend on TV ads and does very little
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #671 on: March 05, 2018, 04:57:53 PM »

Lamb is obviously favored, but the more national attention this race draws, the more likely a Saccone victory becomes. Still, I think Lamb wins by 2.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #672 on: March 05, 2018, 04:59:03 PM »

I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #673 on: March 05, 2018, 05:03:32 PM »

Lamb is obviously favored, but the more national attention this race draws, the more likely a Saccone victory becomes. Still, I think Lamb wins by 2.

Bummer for Lamb that PA is one of the worst states for early voting.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #674 on: March 05, 2018, 05:06:52 PM »

Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.

Obviously a great barometer, especially giving Ossoff in the 70s at one point. Predictit is garbage, learn it quick. I would not be too suprised by a Lamb win, but I think this is still Saccone's race to lose. Going into this, I was at about Lean R, Saccone wins 53-45, now I am thinking tilt R with Saccone pulling out 51-47.
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