PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:01:20 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27 28 29 ... 103
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 195569 times)
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #575 on: March 02, 2018, 01:47:32 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Honestly, it could be said that Saccone is in trouble if he's only statistically tied with Lamb while Trump is six points above water in a district he won by double digits. Not saying that Lamb is the favorite right now as we've seen something similar happen in GA-06, but the race is definitely pure tossup at the moment.
That speaks to an enthusiasm issue, not that the votes for Saccone aren't there.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,200


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #576 on: March 02, 2018, 01:55:17 PM »

You guys do realize that it is very common for 20% of people who slightly approve/disapprove of the president to vote for the other party right?
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #577 on: March 02, 2018, 02:01:23 PM »

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Maybe, but I think you are over-simplifying how easy it would be for Trump to shift that many voters into Saccone's corner. Presidents can have a lot of influence over their party's voters, but they aren't deities. Trump-approvers are not all going to vote in lockstep with the president's party or with the president's wishes, just like Trump-disapprovers usually don't vote lockstep against POTUS/their party either.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #578 on: March 02, 2018, 02:10:41 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Senator Roy Moore agrees with the jerk.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #579 on: March 02, 2018, 02:14:16 PM »

Last I checked, Saccone isn't a pedophile...you know, the kind of thing that would have folks cross party lines by a huge amount to overcome partisan lean/DJT approval rating.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,346


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #580 on: March 02, 2018, 02:15:00 PM »

New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

@brd_polling
BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%

I don't recognize the pollster, though. They seem new.

They did a VA-GOV poll a week before the election and had Northam+6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/home/archives/10-2017
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #581 on: March 02, 2018, 02:24:51 PM »

Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #582 on: March 02, 2018, 02:26:10 PM »

Yep, so stupid.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,346


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #583 on: March 02, 2018, 02:26:29 PM »

Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.

Harry Enten seems to think it's fake: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/969651144862691329
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,346


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #584 on: March 02, 2018, 03:10:11 PM »

Emerson has a poll coming out today: https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/969585019470696448
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #585 on: March 02, 2018, 03:13:17 PM »

Trump coming to Allegheny County 3 days before the election --->


Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #586 on: March 02, 2018, 03:14:30 PM »


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,346


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #587 on: March 02, 2018, 03:17:20 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #588 on: March 02, 2018, 03:18:28 PM »


I'm willing to put a bet that in the end the fake pollster will be more accurate than Emerson.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #589 on: March 02, 2018, 03:58:50 PM »

Sounds like Lamb is ahead in the Emerson poll.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,346


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #590 on: March 02, 2018, 03:59:57 PM »

Sounds like Lamb is ahead in the Emerson poll.

Not necessarily.  It might show a small Saccone lead, assuming the tweet isn't a complete tease to begin with.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,200


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #591 on: March 02, 2018, 04:11:07 PM »

watch the major upset is saccone + 30
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #592 on: March 02, 2018, 04:12:23 PM »

Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.

Shots fired

Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #593 on: March 02, 2018, 04:17:32 PM »

A Fox poll too?

Why do always have long droughts and then days where many dump all at once?

Edit: Did PittsburghSteel delete his post?
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #594 on: March 02, 2018, 04:18:32 PM »

Because I don't know if it's true.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #595 on: March 02, 2018, 06:38:41 PM »

GA-06 had 15 polls for the runoff, we've had THREE polls of PA-18 so far.
Logged
bandg
Rookie
**
Posts: 151
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #596 on: March 02, 2018, 06:40:03 PM »

So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,346


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #597 on: March 02, 2018, 06:45:42 PM »

So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.

Thanks for the summary.  Do we have any information as to when the pending Gravis poll is coming out?
Logged
bandg
Rookie
**
Posts: 151
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #598 on: March 02, 2018, 07:04:33 PM »

So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.

Thanks for the summary.  Do we have any information as to when the pending Gravis poll is coming out?

No clue, but their last two polls have come out on Sundays, so that would be my best guess.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #599 on: March 02, 2018, 07:19:13 PM »

Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.

The worst consequence of a Lamb loss will be all the smug RED WAVE INCOMING posts, even if Saccone barely ekes out a win.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27 28 29 ... 103  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 10 queries.