PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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May 09, 2021, 09:06:24 AM

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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 141422 times)
Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #375 on: February 15, 2018, 01:07:42 PM »

At this point, if I had to say who would win, it would be Lamb.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #376 on: February 15, 2018, 01:09:31 PM »

Gotta love that we don't have to change the title
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #377 on: February 15, 2018, 01:16:15 PM »

Now we must ask ourselves whether this is Saccone blowing it because let's face it: he's an awful candidate, or it's because Lamb is a super strong candidate. I'm leaning towards it being a little bit of both.

It's pretty obvious that Lamb is no Ossoff.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #378 on: February 15, 2018, 01:16:22 PM »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #379 on: February 15, 2018, 01:18:57 PM »

This is just showing how godawful Morning Consult is. If Trump has a 46% approval rating in the state, his candidate would be running away with this. It's a southwestern CD for crying out loud. The poll clearly shows a lot of this is a backlash against Trump.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #380 on: February 15, 2018, 01:28:13 PM »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #381 on: February 15, 2018, 02:04:55 PM »

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.
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Mondale
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« Reply #382 on: February 15, 2018, 02:05:08 PM »

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.
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Pericles
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« Reply #383 on: February 15, 2018, 02:15:16 PM »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #384 on: February 15, 2018, 02:24:53 PM »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #385 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:21 PM »


And Linda Belcher. The New Hope.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #386 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:46 PM »

Well...I can actually see Lamb winning by 3 or 4 points. I think Monmouth has been a little off in their recent polling.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #387 on: February 15, 2018, 03:18:28 PM »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #388 on: February 15, 2018, 03:32:11 PM »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
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Anyone But Yang!
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« Reply #389 on: February 15, 2018, 03:49:12 PM »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
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henster
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« Reply #390 on: February 15, 2018, 05:27:37 PM »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #391 on: February 15, 2018, 05:29:16 PM »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #392 on: February 15, 2018, 06:07:30 PM »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06

An idea I've seen floated on Twitter is that the DCCC may be waiting to see what the final PA maps look like in a few days.  They might not want to invest a lot in trying to help Lamb win a seat that he'd be likely to lose in November (or on the flip side, might be an easier gain for the Democrats then).
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #393 on: February 15, 2018, 06:14:07 PM »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

This makes me think internal polling doesn't have the race as close as Monmouth pegged it at. I'm still optimistic, but idk. Trump's approval and the generic ballot in that poll can't exist in the same universe as the generic ballot polling and approval rating trend we're seeing right now. Unless there is an absolutely massive turnout differential.
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Mondale
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« Reply #394 on: February 15, 2018, 08:28:17 PM »

Trump bails

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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #395 on: February 15, 2018, 09:33:51 PM »


Smart. He knows he's going to sink Saccone. His disapproval rating shouldn't be 48% in South Western PA.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #396 on: February 15, 2018, 09:42:26 PM »

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Considering that this is Atlas, your second sentence seems a tad redundant.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #397 on: February 15, 2018, 09:56:53 PM »

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #398 on: February 15, 2018, 10:00:17 PM »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #399 on: February 15, 2018, 10:03:05 PM »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ehhhhh idk about that
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