PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[MT Treasurer]

Lol. Even if the GOP is completely BTFO in 2018 and/or 2020, they'll rebound again within one or two elections. Trump will be a distant memory by then. Such is the nature of American politics.

Don’t feed the troll, this is part of his shtick.

In any case, Lamb is favored in this race. I think he wins by 3-5.

[THE BuckeyeNut]

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I don't know whether to be happy that there's a poll coming, or unhappy because it's Gravis.

Check Gravis’ poll rating on 538. They have dramatically improved.

[LimoLiberal]

DCCC isn't making another buy. Nothing suggest that Ds view this race as competitive.

[Pericles]

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.

[Bidenworth2020]

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.

[¿]

Tossup.

[#PACK THE COURTS]

Lean R. Saccone by 4%.

[Young Conservative]

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

[President Sestak]

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

How is Lamb 'not moderate'?

Come on

[#PACK THE COURTS]

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

For me, this sort of thing is beyond frustrating because this is exactly what Larry Hogan (who is a very hardcore Conservative Republican), the Governor of the state I live in is doing.

[Mondale]

Poll tomorrow

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[President Sestak]

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

In VA-GOV, they consistently showed a close race (tied to a small Northam lead).

[LimoLiberal]

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.

[Devout Centrist]

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

[DTC]

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Same

[Virginiá]

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

The fact that this race is even competitive is a testament to how unfavorable this environment is for Republicans. It'd be nice if Democrats won it, but it's not really necessary, and it's not exactly a district Democrats could expect to hold for long at all (perhaps not even past 2018).

All this attention paid to it has set Republicans up for another round of gloating about how they managed to hold a normally safe R+11 district, completely oblivious to how low their standard of success has been lowered in the Trump era.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Even if Conor Lamb won, media sites like The Hill will still ignore it and try to find a reason to believe the blue wave is "dead".

[Young Conservative]

If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment

[KingSweden]

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.

That turnout model thing smacked me of hedging bets at first, but I’d be interested to see how it holds up when other pollsters do it for other races

[Congrats, Griffin!]

If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment

Gotta disagree with you there, I think it'll be:

1. National environment (without a historically toxic environment across the board for Republicans, this seat wouldn't even be remotely competitive even with everything else; I'd argue that this is far and away the most important factor.  Honestly, Saccone should be winning by like 15% without breaking a sweat even in a Democratic-leaning national environment, IIRC Trump won this decidedly WWC district by about 20 points in 2016)

2. Saccone's general incompetence as a candidate is what may in the context of the national environment may be what pushes Lamb just over the finish line, but the national environment is what made this race close enough that its not inconcievable for that 1-2% Saccone doesn't get due to lazyness/incompetance to be the deciding factor.  Anything within single-digits here should worry Republicans and if Saccone wins by 5% or less, then that's still a disaster for the GOP in terms of what it suggests about the midterms.  It'd certainly indicate that the "Trump/GOP rebound" narrative is...well...completely baseless.  This isn't like the Alabama Senate race where Republicans can just write it off as being about the candidate if they lose.  Saccone didn't help, but any Republicans who think this seat is in play primarily b/c of candidate quality are only fooling themselves.  

3. Well...actually that's about it.  I disagree pretty strongly with you about Lamb being some sort of exceptional candidate.  I mean, he's not bad or anything, but he's also nothing to write home about; he's simply an average candidate running a reasonably competent campaign.  Honestly, he's not even the strongest Democratic candidate in the district and IIRC was like the 4th or 5th (might've even been 6th) choice to run here.  Lamb only became the party's choice after all the top-tier recruits said they weren't interested and there's a reason for that: he's not a top-tier candidate (Lamb is on the weaker end of generic b-list, but Saccone is running such a lazy campaign that he makes Lamb look like a first-rate candidate by comparison).  Again, there's nothing wrong with Lamb per-say, but someone like Brandon Neuman or Matt H. Smith would have been a much stronger recruit.  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am really upset about Lamb's exclusive and lobbyist filled fundraising events, while claiming to stand against this. I hope that he does not pull any more shenanigans like this in the future.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Monmouth Poll.

Saccone          49
Lamb              46

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Oh sh*t.

[Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon]

Com'on Lamb!!! You can do it!!!!