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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127516 times)
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« Reply #350 on: February 12, 2018, 11:10:37 pm »


50-47 (D) hold
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #351 on: February 13, 2018, 12:26:28 am »

Lol. Even if the GOP is completely BTFO in 2018 and/or 2020, they'll rebound again within one or two elections. Trump will be a distant memory by then. Such is the nature of American politics.

Donít feed the troll, this is part of his shtick.

In any case, Lamb is favored in this race. I think he wins by 3-5.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #352 on: February 13, 2018, 09:03:17 am »


I don't know whether to be happy that there's a poll coming, or unhappy because it's Gravis.

Check Gravisí poll rating on 538. They have dramatically improved.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #353 on: February 13, 2018, 10:23:46 am »

DCCC isn't making another buy. Nothing suggest that Ds view this race as competitive.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #354 on: February 13, 2018, 02:23:07 pm »

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.
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« Reply #355 on: February 13, 2018, 07:12:15 pm »

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.
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MB
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« Reply #356 on: February 13, 2018, 07:31:10 pm »

Tossup.
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #357 on: February 13, 2018, 08:00:31 pm »

Lean R. Saccone by 4%.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #358 on: February 13, 2018, 08:23:07 pm »

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)
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« Reply #359 on: February 13, 2018, 09:10:59 pm »

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

How is Lamb 'not moderate'?

Come on
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« Reply #360 on: February 13, 2018, 09:18:05 pm »

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

For me, this sort of thing is beyond frustrating because this is exactly what Larry Hogan (who is a very hardcore Conservative Republican), the Governor of the state I live in is doing.
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Mondale
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« Reply #361 on: February 14, 2018, 03:39:38 pm »

Poll tomorrow

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« Reply #362 on: February 14, 2018, 03:46:04 pm »

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #363 on: February 14, 2018, 03:48:15 pm »

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

In VA-GOV, they consistently showed a close race (tied to a small Northam lead).
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #364 on: February 14, 2018, 03:52:46 pm »

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.
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« Reply #365 on: February 14, 2018, 05:20:58 pm »

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.
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DTC
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« Reply #366 on: February 14, 2018, 05:26:27 pm »

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Same
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #367 on: February 14, 2018, 05:49:05 pm »

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

The fact that this race is even competitive is a testament to how unfavorable this environment is for Republicans. It'd be nice if Democrats won it, but it's not really necessary, and it's not exactly a district Democrats could expect to hold for long at all (perhaps not even past 2018).

All this attention paid to it has set Republicans up for another round of gloating about how they managed to hold a normally safe R+11 district, completely oblivious to how low their standard of success has been lowered in the Trump era.
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« Reply #368 on: February 14, 2018, 09:57:16 pm »

Even if Conor Lamb won, media sites like The Hill will still ignore it and try to find a reason to believe the blue wave is "dead".
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #369 on: February 15, 2018, 09:09:54 am »

If Conor  Lamb wins itíll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Sacconeís incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lambís exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment

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KingSweden
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« Reply #370 on: February 15, 2018, 09:37:07 am »

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.

That turnout model thing smacked me of hedging bets at first, but Iíd be interested to see how it holds up when other pollsters do it for other races
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Everything Burns...
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« Reply #371 on: February 15, 2018, 09:54:38 am »

If Conor  Lamb wins itíll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Sacconeís incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lambís exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment



Gotta disagree with you there, I think it'll be:

1. National environment (without a historically toxic environment across the board for Republicans, this seat wouldn't even be remotely competitive even with everything else; I'd argue that this is far and away the most important factor.  Honestly, Saccone should be winning by like 15% without breaking a sweat even in a Democratic-leaning national environment, IIRC Trump won this decidedly WWC district by about 20 points in 2016)

2. Saccone's general incompetence as a candidate is what may in the context of the national environment may be what pushes Lamb just over the finish line, but the national environment is what made this race close enough that its not inconcievable for that 1-2% Saccone doesn't get due to lazyness/incompetance to be the deciding factor.  Anything within single-digits here should worry Republicans and if Saccone wins by 5% or less, then that's still a disaster for the GOP in terms of what it suggests about the midterms.  It'd certainly indicate that the "Trump/GOP rebound" narrative is...well...completely baseless.  This isn't like the Alabama Senate race where Republicans can just write it off as being about the candidate if they lose.  Saccone didn't help, but any Republicans who think this seat is in play primarily b/c of candidate quality are only fooling themselves.  

3. Well...actually that's about it.  I disagree pretty strongly with you about Lamb being some sort of exceptional candidate.  I mean, he's not bad or anything, but he's also nothing to write home about; he's simply an average candidate running a reasonably competent campaign.  Honestly, he's not even the strongest Democratic candidate in the district and IIRC was like the 4th or 5th (might've even been 6th) choice to run here.  Lamb only became the party's choice after all the top-tier recruits said they weren't interested and there's a reason for that: he's not a top-tier candidate (Lamb is on the weaker end of generic b-list, but Saccone is running such a lazy campaign that he makes Lamb look like a first-rate candidate by comparison).  Again, there's nothing wrong with Lamb per-say, but someone like Brandon Neuman or Matt H. Smith would have been a much stronger recruit.  

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #372 on: February 15, 2018, 12:23:10 pm »

I am really upset about Lamb's exclusive and lobbyist filled fundraising events, while claiming to stand against this. I hope that he does not pull any more shenanigans like this in the future.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #373 on: February 15, 2018, 01:04:03 pm »

Monmouth Poll.

Saccone          49
Lamb              46

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/
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« Reply #374 on: February 15, 2018, 01:05:28 pm »

Oh sh*t.
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