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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127562 times)
VirginiŠ
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« Reply #25 on: January 07, 2018, 05:54:45 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: January 07, 2018, 05:59:21 pm »

This thread is dumb. Republicans leading by 12 in a district Trump won by 20 is hardly great news for them. Of course, it pours cold water over the Atlas fantasy of Dems winning 100+ House seats, but who cares.

Also, if those are Wolf's and Casey's real approvals in this district, they're both going to win re-election easily.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #27 on: January 07, 2018, 06:05:41 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #28 on: January 07, 2018, 06:07:44 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #29 on: January 07, 2018, 06:09:45 pm »

But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #30 on: January 07, 2018, 06:10:00 pm »

The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #31 on: January 07, 2018, 06:10:53 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: January 07, 2018, 06:12:12 pm »

The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

I mean, it would've been hard for it to get LESS popular, so obviously it was going to improve somewhat if it actually passed and the right wing had their victory parties.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #33 on: January 07, 2018, 06:12:52 pm »

The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

I trolled about Tax Reform constantly, suggesting a "huge" Tax Reform Bump which didn't really happen.

But I was also ridiculed for suggesting that the bonuses from major companies and stripping of all the unpopular elements could make the tax bill more popular, and I have no doubt in my mind that the bill has gotten more popular since the height of its unpopularity.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: January 07, 2018, 06:13:54 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.

We already know Trump is popular in West Virginia though. And yes, I do think Manchin is likely to lose. Greedo lumped Brown and Casey in with Manchin in that post, which is obviously ridiculous.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #35 on: January 07, 2018, 06:14:25 pm »

But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.

I really disagree with this.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #36 on: January 07, 2018, 06:20:16 pm »

But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.
I really disagree with this.
Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #37 on: January 07, 2018, 06:38:53 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #38 on: January 07, 2018, 06:44:35 pm »

But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.
I really disagree with this.
Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?

I wish.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #39 on: January 07, 2018, 06:45:59 pm »
« Edited: January 07, 2018, 06:50:05 pm by Bagel23 »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

Erm, this seat was won by Romney by around 17pts and Murphy by 28pts in 2012. And all those guys you listed did just fine. Hell, Murphy even won it by over 28pts in 2008, IMHO, very little correlation. In this part of the country, a lot of elections are settled by name rec, personality, and populism. That's why you see things like Capito, McKinley, and Manchin (won both those districts heavily), all winning their districts by big margins despite being very different, and on opposite parties. Name brand matters, correlations, especially in Appalachia are hard to draw. It is a very flexible region. Saccone only at 12+ (which is arguable, it's only 1 poll) is actually a really sh!tty result for the GOP. And if we were to draw correlations (again, not a fan of that), it's definitely not something to be celebrating for the GOP.

Not to even mention the ginormous cash advantage Saccone has over Lamb right now. If Saccone 12+ holds up (again just one poll), that is quite a crappy result for the GOP.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #40 on: January 07, 2018, 08:16:08 pm »

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.
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Mondale
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« Reply #41 on: January 07, 2018, 08:18:02 pm »

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

Sounds like Trump's disastrous, no good presidency
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IceSpear
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« Reply #42 on: January 07, 2018, 08:24:10 pm »

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

How is being up 12 in a district Trump won by 20 extremely good for Republicans? Seriously, how? Unless you were expecting a complete bloodbath in 2018.
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henster
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« Reply #43 on: January 07, 2018, 08:29:27 pm »

Dems may get a swingy seat out of SWPA if the courts strike down the maps, in most cases PA-18 would get redder in a redrawn. But PA-12 could become a pickup opportunity under new lines.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #44 on: January 07, 2018, 08:32:15 pm »

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #45 on: January 07, 2018, 08:35:26 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #46 on: January 07, 2018, 08:38:10 pm »

The idea that a congressional race is a precursor to how senate races involving incumbents is utterly ridiculous and serious wishful thinking on part of atlas resident reps
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #47 on: January 07, 2018, 08:41:52 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #48 on: January 07, 2018, 08:44:12 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.
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Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #49 on: January 07, 2018, 09:57:48 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.

He has a better approval rating than Shelley Moore Capito: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/
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