PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Badger]

Stephen Hawking died RIP

RIP

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CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.

If you directly extrapolate from these results.

Why wouldn't that be a reasonable thing to do? Saccone is a generic R and lamb seems like a typical midwest dem.

Lamb is well to the right of most potential nominees. The Dems will win 30 seats in the house at the absolute most.

Uh-huh.

Final prediction - Saccone by 8

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Beginning to notice a pattern among winning Democratic candidates but I can't put my finger on it.

are you honestly saying the democratic party is too white?  lol

I’m suggesting that the present policy of chasing white men out of the party may be illl-advised.

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Y'all I have a quiz tomorrow

It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...

I remember spending my college years late at night on the internet with a quiz the next day. That's actually not sarcasm I legit did that and getting nostalgia flashbacks

I remember my college, and law school years, before the internet. I would've never made it through.

[Badger]

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.

That's assuming that the absentees match the ED vote, right?

If so, Lamb has done better in absentees in both Allegheny and Westmoreland. I'd imagine it'll stay the same in Washington and Greene.

Hell, extrapolating the D-lean of SW PA absentees, both generally and especially from today, there's a decent chance he'll pick up votes from the Washington absentees, quite possibly enough to offset the literal handful Saccone picks up in Greene.

Yeah, it's over. Lamb won.

[Badger]

Conor Lamb giving a victory speech

And not a good one either... lol

It's fine. The best part was when he reasserted his commitment to organized labor. He could be a major power player for organized labor in Congress if he stays around.

This.

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If only Democrats were as pro-labor as Conor Lamb, they'd easily win back Obama voters in the WWC. Lamb isn't a progressive but much like Joe Biden is a good match for the WWC anyway. 

They are. The difference is they don't focus their campaigns on unions and union-friendly economic issues.

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Any news on those Greene and Washington absentees yet?

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I'd put 5 bucks down on Costello retiring as soon as the new map is upheld.

Hell, I'd put down $50.

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Ugh CNN doing nothing but saying Democratic candidates should move to the centre...aka become just as corrupt as the Republicans.

Honestly, other than staying resolutely pro-gun, and the personality politics basis of stating he'll not support Nancy Pelosi, how is he any more "centerist" than a typical Democrat?

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Gina Cerilli, this is your time.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973788461793726470

Still, Saccone narrowly lost a +20 Trump district, and the new PA-14 is +26. It would take a miracle for Cerilli, though I guess many said the same thing about Lamb.

[Badger]

Any news on those Greene and Washington absentees yet?

Greene is not botherimg announcing anything tonight but Washington will drop around 2

OK, expect the NYT checkmark to go up right afterwards.

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Y'all would've seen the picture months ago if you started following the race from the jump.

I remember it well, and commented that Lamb seemed like a joke candidate until I learned this was a Halloween parade.

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So has Saccone finally raised his haunches and submission and conceded yet? Or is he still pulling a Roy Moore at this point?

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Another terrific map by Miles.

Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

[Badger]

Another terrific map by Miles.

Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

All Lamb needs to do is win Beaver County, which Wolf carried in 2014.

You mean winning Beaver would make him a lock, right? Because he can win the district if he keeps it close enough but still loses it.

So what is rothfuss pvi for Beaver County in his prior races? That is, how much ahead or behind of his district-wide percentage has he run in Beaver County during his three elections?

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So has Saccone finally raised his haunches and submission and conceded yet? Or is he still pulling a Roy Moore at this point?

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And that's it folks!
See you again in November.

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/976599949520588800

Is it me or that decided reference to last Tuesday's election was a passive-aggressive swipe for how long it took Saccone to concede?

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My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

lmao

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prediction based on "personal sources" be correct on this site. Remember Ben Kenobi in the Alabama thread?

Ben was using a model he developed.  It turned out to be a terrible one, but at least it was an attempt to be rigorous rather than citing nebulous sources.

Yeah, but it was still God awful. And the way he defended it right up till like 98% of the vote was in was... Obtuse even by his standards