PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Holmes]

Miles has his map ready:

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

[Holmes]

The weather looks to be the worst in Washington county today if weather.com is to be believed.

[Holmes]

Saccone' calling himself the underdog.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/13/rick-saccone-underdog-458346

[Holmes]

I am cautiously optimistic.

[Holmes]

Any updates on the ground?

People be voting

[Holmes]

henster is the new LimoLiberal.

[Holmes]

Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.

It's their approximation of a 50/50 race. If a candidate exceeds the benchmark in a precinct, it'll move the needle in their favor, and vice-versa.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973709623520825344

Either they're extremely good at expectations setting, or they really think Saccone is f**ked. We'll find out soon!

I mean, how often do they have to set expectations if that's what they're doing? Every hour on the hour today I saw a "GOP officials predict loss" headline, up to the last minute. At some point it's gotta manifest itself.

[Holmes]

I know this isn't relevant to the topic at hand, but why is the site an hr behind?

Change your profile settings.

[Holmes]

Guys CNN says "To Early to Call". "To Early to Call"!? Atlas, what is your take on this development?

My mom's friend's dogsitter's son's cat's former owner says that CNN has exit polls showing Lamb up 65-35.

Fig, if Blue.

Blue, if true.

[Holmes]

6,418-4,129. This is gonna be a blowout.

Wait for Westmoreland.

[Holmes]

Well Westmoreland is over 50% in, and if Lamb keeps Washington close, I don't think his lead in Alleghany can be overcome if it keeps expanding.

[Holmes]

Westmoreland is basically all in with Lamb +918. It's probably not enough for Saccone...

[Holmes]

The absentees decide this either way, no matter how the last two Westmoreland precincts go.

[Holmes]

Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

You think he wins absentees in Greene 75-25??

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/973760834378878976

Done because the race is close. Get out your coffee folks, because you are in charge of this. I intend to be awake for tomorrow, will sleep soon.

Well, PST stay winning I guess.

[Holmes]

Out of curiosity, was Saccone ever ahead in the count? Not that it matters that much, I'm just curious, since I wasn't here earlier on.

No. Closest he got was 95 votes.

No, the first ever precinct came in with a Lamb+25 margin.

[Holmes]

I'm gonna guess Washington county absentees will be close to 50/50, Greene's won't make a dent regardless, and Westmoreland might add a couple hundred for Saccone.

[Holmes]

Y'all I have a quiz tomorrow

It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

[Holmes]

Stephen Hawking died RIP

Wow.

[Holmes]

So. Would Gina Cerilli have been a better candidate? Or would she not have prevailed without Lamb's Allegheny hometown advantage?

[Holmes]

Y'all I have a quiz tomorrow

It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...

Ok but like everyone younger than me is 12.

[Holmes]

Now the word is Washington results will come in around anywhere from 2:15 to 3

I'll go to sleep. If Lamb only lost Westmoreland absentees by 3%, he probably won them in Washington.

[Holmes]

[Holmes]

Y'all would've seen the picture months ago if you started following the race from the jump.