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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 132431 times)
Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #50 on: January 07, 2018, 10:02:17 pm »

and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #51 on: January 07, 2018, 10:10:55 pm »

and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #52 on: January 07, 2018, 10:14:19 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

Trump campaigning against Manchin could hurt, but it could do near nothing, as seen in AL. It's a wild card.
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Keep cool-idge
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« Reply #53 on: January 07, 2018, 10:19:36 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

Trump campaigning against Manchin could hurt, but it could do near nothing, as seen in AL. It's a wild card.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #54 on: January 08, 2018, 12:42:09 am »

More or less "normal" numbers for Appalachia. It may be less admiring of Trump then year ago, but still of rather low opinion about Democratic party as it is.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #55 on: January 08, 2018, 10:06:26 am »

I want to believe that Lamb is a great candidate and Saccone is a terrible candidate etc. but I suppose this is the kind of district where you would expect Trump support to be most durable.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #56 on: January 08, 2018, 11:20:24 am »

and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state
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Unpolled Amash Voter for Trump
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« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2018, 11:56:17 am »

I'm expecting Saccone to win by 10 but if tax reform is underperforming Trump approvals, I'm not too concerned about a tax reform bump.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #58 on: January 08, 2018, 12:03:42 pm »

Ok... in all honesty, given the variance in the AL polling that we just saw, how can anyone even think this poll has any meaning? Alabama ranged from Jones +10 to Moore +9. Given that it's a CD and not a state, why would this poll be considered a sign of anything?
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OneJ
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« Reply #59 on: January 08, 2018, 01:55:19 pm »

We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #60 on: January 08, 2018, 05:01:25 pm »

Good poll. Not only does it show a massive shift given how much Trump won the district by, it shows that if turnout favors Democrats enough (which evidence shows there is a good chance of happening), this district is in play. At this point I'd be really surprised if Saccone wins by more than 10, in part since that hasn't even been done by a single other special federal election. Still pinning this race at Lean R, though much closer to Likely R than Tilt R. Democrats need to hope this district stays under the radar like SC-05 or KS-04 for a close result and hope that it's not a repeat of GA-06. 
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IceSpear
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« Reply #61 on: January 08, 2018, 08:36:33 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since itís WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didnít vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.

He has a better approval rating than Shelley Moore Capito: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/

We'll see what that looks like after the ads and Trump attacks start.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #62 on: January 08, 2018, 08:37:44 pm »

IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #63 on: January 08, 2018, 08:41:05 pm »

IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. Tongue

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R. Wink
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Holmes
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« Reply #64 on: January 08, 2018, 08:43:13 pm »

IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. Tongue

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R. Wink

Hmm.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #65 on: January 08, 2018, 09:30:09 pm »

We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.

This. Manchin has also easily barnstormed reelection when the GOP held well over double the lead this poll shows now in this district, this sh!t is simply not connected, nice try though!
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #66 on: January 08, 2018, 10:48:12 pm »

Murphyís closest race was in 2006, a Democrat wave election.   He was also accused of illegally using District office employees to work in his campaign .  He won 58% to 42%.  Last year Trump won 58.1% to 38.5%.  So, is the bench mark for Saccone not 58%?    In that case right now Saccone is 12% short of 58% and Lamb is 8% short of 42%.  Saccone is also getting 14% of Democrats.

By the way In 2014 Corbett beat Wolf 54.9 to 45.1.  Wolf could be as big a drag as Trump.  Even in 2012 Obama lost 57.9 % to 41% and Casey lost 53.4% to 44.

I am not saying Lamb cannot climb the hill.  But it will not be easy. Even in a flood the GOP will not lose every seat

Also, if Saccone wins, that still does mean there will not be a wave.  I would suggest my Democrat friends here not place a lot of emotional energy in this race. 
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #67 on: January 08, 2018, 10:54:10 pm »

Murphyís closest race was in 2006, a Democrat wave election.   He was also accused of illegally using District office employees to work in his campaign .  He won 58% to 42%.  Last year Trump won 58.1% to 38.5%.  So, is the bench mark for Saccone not 58%?    In that case right now Saccone is 12% short of 58% and Lamb is 8% short of 42%.  Saccone is also getting 14% of Democrats.

By the way In 2014 Corbett beat Wolf 54.9 to 45.1.  Wolf could be as big a drag as Trump.  Even in 2012 Obama lost 57.9 % to 41% and Casey lost 53.4% to 44.

I am not saying Lamb cannot climb the hill.  But it will not be easy. Even in a flood the GOP will not lose every seat

Also, if Saccone wins, that still does mean there will not be a wave.  I would suggest my Democrat friends here not place a lot of emotional energy in this race. 


Very good post, actually I am surprised, good job. I'd say the Republican benchmark should be about 56%. Anything lower than that would be embarrassing.
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Holmes
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« Reply #68 on: January 08, 2018, 11:37:25 pm »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #69 on: January 08, 2018, 11:52:21 pm »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #70 on: January 08, 2018, 11:53:10 pm »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #71 on: January 08, 2018, 11:55:03 pm »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....
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Holmes
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« Reply #72 on: January 09, 2018, 12:14:17 am »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....

Maybe but Republicans will always have their precious donors either way, so moot point.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #73 on: January 09, 2018, 12:35:00 am »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....

Maybe but Republicans will always have their precious donors either way, so moot point.

They don't believe they'll always have them though, that's the thing. Part of why they were able to muscle through tax reform was they told legislators that big donors would abandon the party if tax reform didn't pass
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Brittain33
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« Reply #74 on: January 12, 2018, 12:57:06 pm »

Despite this poll result and the district's Trumpy profile, here's your Republican dog sweat article in Politico:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/11/trump-special-election-pennsylvania-pittsburgh-336502
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