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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127620 times)
#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #475 on: February 19, 2018, 08:03:22 pm »

I have a feeling this will be another 51-49% heartbreaker for Democrats similar to GA-06.



Conor Lamb is not Jon Ossoff, and he fits the district like a glove.
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Truvinny
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« Reply #476 on: February 19, 2018, 08:04:45 pm »

Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.
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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #477 on: February 19, 2018, 08:05:38 pm »

I agree, and welcome to Atlas!
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Arch
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« Reply #478 on: February 19, 2018, 08:08:27 pm »

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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #479 on: February 19, 2018, 08:25:37 pm »

Saccone really needs to get off mentioning Pelosi every single time. The ones who would hate anyone for siding with her are already voting for him. The swing voter won't care.
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Arch
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« Reply #480 on: February 19, 2018, 08:26:38 pm »

When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.
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Truvinny
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« Reply #481 on: February 19, 2018, 08:30:37 pm »


Thank you PittsburghSteel and Arch!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #482 on: February 19, 2018, 08:33:28 pm »

When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

March 13.
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Arch
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« Reply #483 on: February 19, 2018, 08:36:21 pm »

When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

March 13.

Excellent
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Ridin with Biden
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« Reply #484 on: February 19, 2018, 08:43:09 pm »

This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #485 on: February 19, 2018, 08:45:34 pm »


Harry Enten:

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DTC
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« Reply #486 on: February 19, 2018, 08:47:48 pm »

Saccone really needs to get off mentioning Pelosi every single time. The ones who would hate anyone for siding with her are already voting for him. The swing voter won't care.

Not necessarily... polls have indicated that a lot of the undecided voters aren't really a fan of Pelosi. They also indicate that these undecided voters are more likely to support Connor Lamb if they know that he has a pledge to not support Pelosi.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #487 on: February 19, 2018, 08:52:14 pm »

If Lamb pulls it out here, I wager that the PAGOP will be feeling the pain of nominating Saccone for years. Come November, Lamb will be able to run in Rothfus' new swing district, another matchup he's very likely to win given the climate this year, and after that point they're unlikely to ever be rid of him. If the stars align for him, Lamb will be a shoo-in to take on (and likely take out) Toomey in 2022.
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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #488 on: February 19, 2018, 10:12:33 pm »

If Lamb pulls it out here, I wager that the PAGOP will be feeling the pain of nominating Saccone for years. Come November, Lamb will be able to run in Rothfus' new swing district, another matchup he's very likely to win given the climate this year, and after that point they're unlikely to ever be rid of him. If the stars align for him, Lamb will be a shoo-in to take on (and likely take out) Toomey in 2022.

This. Whether Lamb wins or not, he's going to challenge, and defeat Rothfus in November. Conor is a rising star and the PAGOP can't stop him/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #489 on: February 19, 2018, 10:23:07 pm »

No, Cartwright and DePasquale would be better.
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Holmes
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« Reply #490 on: February 19, 2018, 10:25:37 pm »

The new PA-17 really is a gift to Democrats.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #491 on: February 19, 2018, 10:26:49 pm »

The new PA-17 really is a gift to Democrats.

Haha Rothfus was my representative. I'm so mad my precinct is now in the more conservative PA14.

Anyways, Conor Lamb is Pennsylvania's best chance for a President in the future.
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badger
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« Reply #492 on: February 19, 2018, 10:30:05 pm »

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.

Wut?

Seriously, wut?
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #493 on: February 19, 2018, 10:30:36 pm »

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.

The guy bragged about torturing people in one of his radio ads...

He's GWB and Trump's love child.
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badger
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« Reply #494 on: February 19, 2018, 10:57:41 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,


Yes and no. There are a lot of diehard pro-life voters who will never vote for any candidate on the wrong side of this issue (and a number of such pro-choice voters, but fewer IMO who will actually switch their votes on this sole issue). However, there are a lot of nominal "anti-abortion" voters, many of whom if pressed don't really want to see abortion made illegal but still consider themselves "pro-life". Those folks will vote for a pro-choice Doug Jones (or Conor Lamb). However, many of these same voters see anti-gun legislation as "the first step to taking away my gun rights" and (egged on by a flyer and call or two from the NRA the week before election) will oppose any "anti-gun" candidate in a way they might let a "pro-choice" candidate slide.

There's a lot of such voters in PA-18. That said, I have to agree I'm not sure whether this is a right read of what he needs to do to win. I question whether he could argue for "sensible gun laws" while "still strongly supporting the Second Amendment". There are a lot of gun owners in the district who wouldn't be overly offended by that, outside the hardcore NRA voters who aren't likely to vote for him to begin with. Leave Saccone to take a typically hard line stance and seem out of step for the times.

I don't know. It's a hard call either way. All I can say to Bagel and others is Saccone will be no better. The question is which is more open to reasonable compromise if elected.
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badger
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« Reply #495 on: February 19, 2018, 11:08:26 pm »

Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

Hi man, and welcome! Two questions: Do you have any authority for the idea more voters from the out of power party tend to show up for special elections? I mean, it FEELS like a correct statement in my gut, much like the general trend for off-year elections in general, but I was just wondering.

Secondly, have the polls really turned towards Lamb? They seem to have all been in a low to mid single digit Saccone lead. The most recent showing Saccone up by 6 is actually an improvement on the last two polls showing him up only 3 points each. Caveat for MoE and all that acknowledged, but I'm wondering if there's some other polls you're aware of, even via word of mouth from people in the respective campaigns?

Just looking for every crumb of info on this really interesting race. Again, welcome!
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badger
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« Reply #496 on: February 20, 2018, 12:47:05 am »

OK, so how do the new maps for 2018 potentially affect the special election? I'm specifically thinking if I'm Saccone I loudly announce a promise that if elected to run in the newly re-drawn 14th District where the vast majority of current PA-18 voters reside. Basically making the argument of why elect someone who won't be representing you (or at least most of you) come next year? It basically puts Lamb on the spot to promise he'll run in the new PA-14 rather than against Rothfuss in PA-17 (which of course he'll never do), or admit he'll dump the voters he's currently asking to support him in Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties to instead continue representing only the South Hills portion of the district.

A potential issue for Saccone?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #497 on: February 20, 2018, 10:49:30 am »

My vague reading would be that your typical Trump Democrat (if we are to annoy people by throwing around such terms) is exactly the kind of person who cares more for keeping their own guns than about some principles regarding other peoples' babies.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #498 on: February 20, 2018, 11:15:01 am »

OK, so how do the new maps for 2018 potentially affect the special election? I'm specifically thinking if I'm Saccone I loudly announce a promise that if elected to run in the newly re-drawn 14th District where the vast majority of current PA-18 voters reside. Basically making the argument of why elect someone who won't be representing you (or at least most of you) come next year? It basically puts Lamb on the spot to promise he'll run in the new PA-14 rather than against Rothfuss in PA-17 (which of course he'll never do), or admit he'll dump the voters he's currently asking to support him in Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties to instead continue representing only the South Hills portion of the district.

A potential issue for Saccone?

That could be a problem for Lamb, but it'd be pretty easy for Lamb to make carpetbagging accusations against Saccone if the latter decides to run in the 14th.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #499 on: February 20, 2018, 12:00:55 pm »

Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.
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