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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127534 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #425 on: February 16, 2018, 08:04:12 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #426 on: February 16, 2018, 09:41:39 pm »

Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #427 on: February 16, 2018, 09:49:51 pm »

Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.

You're a proud supporter of Joe Manchin.  Doesn't Lamb have to act a lot like Manchin to win this district?
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Holmes
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« Reply #428 on: February 16, 2018, 10:59:56 pm »

That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #429 on: February 16, 2018, 11:31:25 pm »

Yes, I am a big Manchin fan. Joe stands up for what he believes in, and takes definite stances on most issues. He was not afraid to stand with Hillary, he was not afraid to buck the NRA when he saw fit, he was not afraid to vote for the tax bill. You name an issue, and odds are that Joe has an honest and strong stance on opinions. As for the supposed waffling for the cameras, I can definitely see where people are coming from, but that is just being friendly with people who want a picture with him. You see how acitivists of all different colors walk up to senators, as seen with certain health care and disability advocacy groups go up to Manchin on capital hill, and probably some others with the opposite view go up again. And many of them want pictures with the senator when they meet with them. What are you going to say, no? Just because you meet with somebody does not mean that you agree with them. Look, I have worn kippahs to bat and bar mitzvahs, I have had been nice to people in authority positions in my life that I dislike, I have gone to both republican and democratic meetings and clapped at each. Does that make me jewish, or like people because I am nice to them, or a Republican? No. They are simply formalities, denying photo ops is usually a no no. Lamb waffles on everything, uh well ya know I'm pro life but I respect the law of the land, sure violence in schools is a problem and looking at gun issues could be beneficial but let's not burden the gun lobby too much more, yeah I stand against big money but I hang out with Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign finance chair, yeah I'm a democrat but forget that I am and just know that I'm against Pelosi harder than the GOP, etc etc. These are all Conor Lamb things. Also this race is getting nationalized and ya know no es bueno.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #430 on: February 16, 2018, 11:34:12 pm »

That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."



Sorry, yeah I did not phrase it well Tongue. Meant to say that if I was a voting resident I would not even show up, and if I was forced to, I would consider Saccone just to push back against the local dems for nominating Lamb, but being a solid dem, I'd probably rebound for Lamb in the end anyways.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #431 on: February 16, 2018, 11:35:38 pm »

Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.
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henster
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« Reply #432 on: February 17, 2018, 01:59:36 am »

Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.

The difference is that Manchin is an incumbent with a long history with voters. Most voters in WV know Joe over his career has been pro-gun and can forgive him for backing some gun reform measures. Lamb doesn't have that connection with voters he's starting with scratch so its best to stick with the standard position for this type of district.
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YE
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« Reply #433 on: February 17, 2018, 03:40:26 am »

Bagel isn't wrong about his establishment connections but he's not taking any corporate or PAC money, so will he really do their bidding in DC or not? Also on what issues Conor Lamb has actually flip flopped on? Most people are somewhere in between pro-life and pro-choice, so I don't think his abortion stance is that problematic. I actually agree with you on the broader point that far too many Democrats trying to weave in and out of crap though Conor Lamb is less guilty of this than the infamous 2014 Kentucky Senate nominee who refused to say whether she voted for Obama or not or said 1996 Democratic nominee for president who sounded like a Republican on the debate stage.   
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #434 on: February 17, 2018, 04:00:42 am »

Bagel can you stop defecating on this thread please?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #435 on: February 17, 2018, 05:11:34 am »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,
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President Johnson
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« Reply #436 on: February 17, 2018, 06:25:21 am »

I have a feeling this will be another 51-49% heartbreaker for Democrats similar to GA-06.
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OneJ
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« Reply #437 on: February 17, 2018, 08:59:03 am »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.

There were socially conservative Democrats who were anti-abortion, I'm pretty sure of, who didn't even reach 40% across the South while Jones was already hitting 40% in the polls before Moore got exposed for the awful human being that he was (and still is).
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Mondale
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« Reply #438 on: February 17, 2018, 07:19:23 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,


Republican politicians aren't serious about the abortion issue....if they really were then they would of had the 32 state legislatures they control call for a Constitutional Amendment to ban abortion...but not a single one has.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #439 on: February 17, 2018, 07:26:37 pm »
« Edited: February 17, 2018, 08:00:47 pm by PittsburghSteel »

What is Bagel's hard-on for Gina Cerilli all about? She's my county commissioner, and let me tell you she's not that impressive.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #440 on: February 17, 2018, 07:44:35 pm »

What is Bagel's harden for Gina Cerilli all about?

Well, she is a former Miss Pennsylvania.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #441 on: February 18, 2018, 09:54:47 am »

Gravis poll drops today.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #442 on: February 18, 2018, 11:05:28 am »

9 point margin for Saccone. Calling it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #443 on: February 18, 2018, 11:07:58 am »


Saccone up by 3-5.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #444 on: February 18, 2018, 11:20:45 am »

Last one had Saccone up by 12 at a time when Republicans were already publicly worried about the race, so I'll say Gravis disagrees with Monmouth again and finds Saccone +9.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #445 on: February 18, 2018, 12:25:32 pm »
« Edited: February 18, 2018, 12:30:42 pm by Castro »

Gravis: Saccone +6

Saccone - 45.5%
Lamb - 40.0%

About a 7 point swing towards Lamb since the previous Gravis poll.

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http://orlando-politics.com/2018/02/18/exclusive-new-poll-pennsylvania-cd-18-special-election-race-tightens/
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Brittain33
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« Reply #446 on: February 18, 2018, 12:53:50 pm »

Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #447 on: February 18, 2018, 05:52:25 pm »

C'mon Conor!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #448 on: February 18, 2018, 05:56:20 pm »

Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.

More proof that Johnson probably hurt Clinton more than Trump.
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DTC
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« Reply #449 on: February 18, 2018, 06:06:06 pm »

Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.

More proof that Johnson probably hurt Clinton more than Trump.

I mean, Johnson voters voted Republicans in the house by like a 60-40 margin, so I'm going to have to disagree there lol. This just shows that Johnson voters may be switching over to democrats after seeing the radical rightwing racist reaming republicans are doing to America.
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