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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127697 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #400 on: February 15, 2018, 10:03:05 pm »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ehhhhh idk about that
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #401 on: February 15, 2018, 11:12:51 pm »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
Why? Was she more Conservative to your liking?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #402 on: February 15, 2018, 11:23:51 pm »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
Why? Was she more Conservative to your liking?

No, Lamb is plenty conservative, but I believe she has a better resume, does not hang out with big donors as much, and has held elected office, winning in a big Trump county. She's also not tied to the Obama admin, and I think she would rack up the margins in the Allegheny part of the district with moderate suburbanites and women very well, would do about as well as Lamb in the rest of the district aka losing it with a respectable margin, and then either keep Westmoreland close, or narrowly winning it, allowing her to win the district by 4-5 points. Westmoreland is a big and important part of this district, and I feel as though Cerilli brings to the table doing a lot better here than Lamb would, and I think she would do just as well in the Allegheny portion, due to raising up the female vote, and moderate suburbanites and suburban women. And its self explanatory that both of them would keep the losses to respectable margins elsewhere in the district.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #403 on: February 16, 2018, 01:51:14 am »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #404 on: February 16, 2018, 01:54:42 am »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #405 on: February 16, 2018, 06:46:44 am »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #406 on: February 16, 2018, 08:13:46 am »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

The power of wishful thinking.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #407 on: February 16, 2018, 08:17:56 am »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

I just said it, typical one liner.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #408 on: February 16, 2018, 12:04:02 pm »

This Monmouth poll is similar to my early prediction from about a month ago ...
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #409 on: February 16, 2018, 12:30:14 pm »

bumping my prediction up to 54-44 sacone, as republicans are bringing in millions
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #410 on: February 16, 2018, 02:43:04 pm »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #411 on: February 16, 2018, 02:49:53 pm »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

He has to to have any hope of winning this seat.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #412 on: February 16, 2018, 03:12:32 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2018, 03:24:16 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #413 on: February 16, 2018, 03:52:39 pm »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.

Eh, that won’t hurt him at all in this district sadly.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #414 on: February 16, 2018, 04:01:22 pm »

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.
a guy has gotta do what he has gotta do to win I guess
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Holmes
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« Reply #415 on: February 16, 2018, 04:01:45 pm »

Yikes. Oh well. Pre-emptive defense for the eventual gun discussion in Monday's debate.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #416 on: February 16, 2018, 04:05:37 pm »

The only way that Lamb is hurt by his comments is when Nancy Smith, a 54 year old social worker from Arlington or San Francisco or Bethesda or Evanston or Belmont, who tweets #resist on twitter and goes to her local indivisible meetings every week, decides not to donate to him. It's a politically savvy position for his district. Not a politically savvy position for accumulating a massive amount of out-of-state donations, a la Jonny from Georgia.
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henster
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« Reply #417 on: February 16, 2018, 04:16:29 pm »

Even background checks barely passed in NV and lost in Maine, Dems hoping for gains by running hard on gun control will be sorely disappointed.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #418 on: February 16, 2018, 04:27:58 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #419 on: February 16, 2018, 04:29:47 pm »

Even background checks barely passed in NV and lost in Maine, Dems hoping for gains by running hard on gun control will be sorely disappointed.

Yeah, shame on us for not wanting more kids to get shot up in school.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #420 on: February 16, 2018, 06:24:53 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?
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Holmes
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« Reply #421 on: February 16, 2018, 06:52:06 pm »

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?

px's post has nothing to do with Moore.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #422 on: February 16, 2018, 07:05:08 pm »

I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #423 on: February 16, 2018, 07:53:10 pm »

Lamb can win this if Trump's approval drops even 5% between now and the election.  As it is, I think it will be a bare bones Republican hold in what should be a safe district, sort of the reverse of what happened with PA-12 in 2010.
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jdb
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« Reply #424 on: February 16, 2018, 08:00:33 pm »

I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.

He already got his ego burned twice in Alabama.
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