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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127466 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #275 on: February 02, 2018, 07:56:58 am »

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #276 on: February 02, 2018, 08:56:54 am »

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

Yeah. Right now, this district looks like Virginia minus NoVa. That's my concern. I hope I'm proven wrong since it was easy in Virginia for Dems not to contest those parts of Virginia.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #277 on: February 03, 2018, 05:04:39 pm »

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.

Many rural Virginia counties in the west have lost population since then.

Anyway, to LLís point, Gillespie got the most votes ever recorded for a Republican gubernatorial nominee, even outpacing Bob McDonnellís showing from when he won by 19 points. Sure, the overall state has grown much during the last eight years, but that would also suggest he did a decent job of getting his people out to vote.
No, it wouldn't. Regardless, there are no parallels between Gillespie and Saccone or Lamb and Northam or Virginia and PA.
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Holmes
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« Reply #278 on: February 03, 2018, 06:14:52 pm »

They're both Appalachia but SWVA is more Southern Appalachia and SWPA is more Midwestern Appalachia. And isn't PA-18 more urban? Suburbs make up a sizable share of the district.
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Badger
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« Reply #279 on: February 04, 2018, 08:18:49 pm »
« Edited: February 04, 2018, 08:21:09 pm by Badger »

They're both Appalachia but SWVA is more Southern Appalachia and SWPA is more Midwestern Appalachia. And isn't PA-18 more urban? Suburbs make up a sizable share of the district.

It's overwhelmingly Suburban, including some inner ring Pittsburgh suburbs.

EDIT: just double-checked the maps. It also has a lot of Rural and small-town areas in the Southwest corner of the state, but even some of those are for commuters to the Greater Pittsburgh area
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J. J.
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« Reply #280 on: February 06, 2018, 01:08:31 am »

It is basically small towns and older suburbs.  The suburbs have not been fashionable since the 70's.

Some sections are historically Republican.  I've referred to Ligonier as "East Prussia."  Yes, I grew up in that area. 

Westmoreland went Republican in 90's or 00's.  The part of the county that is Democratic is in the 12th. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #281 on: February 06, 2018, 08:16:26 am »
« Edited: February 06, 2018, 08:22:49 am by Brittain33 »

Politico has a 2nd Republican dog sweat article!

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/pennsylvania-republicans-special-election-389964

All I've read is the headline.

On edit: it's not a dog sweat article. It's a "here's how we sent the cavalry in because Saccone sucks" article including ancedotes of incredible canvassing in icy weather.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #282 on: February 06, 2018, 08:24:01 am »

Saccone and Lamb seem like respectively really bad and really good candidates.

If there was ever a chance for a Democrat to win this seat as currently drawn, this is it.
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« Reply #283 on: February 06, 2018, 09:10:24 am »

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.
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« Reply #284 on: February 06, 2018, 11:36:59 pm »

Why is it that Republicans bothered defending GA-06 and this one? I mean there are hundreds of House seats and losing a few House seats won't make a difference.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #285 on: February 06, 2018, 11:39:25 pm »

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #286 on: February 06, 2018, 11:58:11 pm »

Did anyone else know that Rick Saccone's wife is asian?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #287 on: February 07, 2018, 12:04:53 am »

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.
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yfnlucci
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« Reply #288 on: February 07, 2018, 02:56:07 am »

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #289 on: February 07, 2018, 03:06:12 am »

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!

Doug Jones says hi.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #290 on: February 07, 2018, 03:21:02 am »

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!

Doug Jones says hi.

Not to mention all the state legislative seats Dems have won in special elections, particularly in Virginia.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #291 on: February 07, 2018, 08:36:30 pm »

Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts
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Badger
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« Reply #292 on: February 07, 2018, 09:36:01 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2018, 09:40:46 pm by Badger »

Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts

Pretty good, but he has to train himself not to steal little glances at the camera when he's doing a ubiquitous "intimate conversation with someone in his living room" advertisement.

My biggest complaint of course is the utter lack of recorder music. What were they thinking?
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Badger
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« Reply #293 on: February 07, 2018, 09:42:47 pm »

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #294 on: February 07, 2018, 09:46:20 pm »

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.
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Badger
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« Reply #295 on: February 07, 2018, 10:01:34 pm »

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #296 on: February 07, 2018, 10:02:42 pm »

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #297 on: February 07, 2018, 10:16:13 pm »

Some terrorists and thugs just deserve punishment, it just does not work, so that's why torture should not be used, I mostly agree with this article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/8833108/Torture-is-not-wrong-it-just-doesnt-work-says-former-interrogator.html
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Brittain33
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« Reply #298 on: February 07, 2018, 10:17:00 pm »

Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.
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Holmes
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« Reply #299 on: February 07, 2018, 10:19:13 pm »

Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts

Pretty good, but he has to train himself not to steal little glances at the camera when he's doing a ubiquitous "intimate conversation with someone in his living room" advertisement.

My biggest complaint of course is the utter lack of recorder music. What were they thinking?

Didn't notice it at first. Were you lost in Beautiful Flawless Lamb's eyes?
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