PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 200529 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2018, 10:36:24 AM »
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2018, 10:40:14 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 10:38:09 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 10:36:24 AM
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.

I think you read the tweets wrong.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2018, 12:09:47 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 12, 2018, 12:06:04 PM
I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.

Looks like it! Lets hope they're not wrong!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM »
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans
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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: March 12, 2018, 12:20:02 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 12:16:20 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2018, 12:25:06 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 12:21:22 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:20:02 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 12:16:20 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.

You make a good point, Democrats need to find a good candidate.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:13 PM »
It hit the number that Nate Cohn said he would want for college educated voters:

56% No college degree
44% 4-year college degree
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:05 PM »




Even after the Trump rally and even with them polling more Republican friendly areas, Lamb's lead stayed stable.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2018, 03:28:10 PM »
Quote from: Lord Mace Tyrell/ King Louis XIII on March 12, 2018, 03:22:28 PM
I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

You're taking the low turnout poll option?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: March 13, 2018, 08:42:16 AM »
Miles has his map ready:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: March 13, 2018, 09:04:54 AM »

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: March 13, 2018, 10:37:13 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 13, 2018, 08:55:58 AM
Heard from a friend that lines are already long in Allegheny. Plus the weather is very nice.

Still ten hours to go.

You know where at in Allegheny?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #37 on: March 13, 2018, 10:41:48 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 10:39:02 AM
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.

She's a Political Science professor at the University of Pittsburgh. So very legit.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: March 13, 2018, 10:42:30 AM »
Also:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #39 on: March 13, 2018, 10:47:01 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 10:43:16 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:41:48 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 10:39:02 AM
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.

She's a Political Science professor at the University of Pittsburgh. So very legit.

Ok, so we're at the elation point of the pre-election anecdotal reports.

Let's try to bring that down to cautiously optimistic.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #40 on: March 13, 2018, 11:59:07 AM »
Quote from: DTC on March 13, 2018, 11:51:16 AM
Quote from: bilaps on March 13, 2018, 11:28:38 AM
this anecdotal stuff is so stupid

Yeah lol

Unless we have a bunch of data points to compare to, this is kinda misleading

Yeah, I'd like to see some results out of outlying counties.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #41 on: March 13, 2018, 12:38:57 PM »
Quote from: DTC on March 13, 2018, 12:33:27 PM
I think y'all are getting a little too excited. I like how people in this thread are way more confident about PA-18 than they were about Virginia.

I still got Saccone winning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: March 13, 2018, 12:58:45 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: March 13, 2018, 03:39:52 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: March 13, 2018, 03:57:04 PM »
Turnout in Westmoreland county might be slipping:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #45 on: March 13, 2018, 04:15:33 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on March 13, 2018, 04:10:19 PM
I can't help but think that Lamb needs more out of Allegheny if Westmoreland is keeping pace with it, but we will see in a few hours...

Reports have indicated that Allegheny (above 30%) is higher than they thought and Westmoreland (lower than 30%) is lower than they thought.

Obviously this could all change and/or be wrong.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2018, 08:16:20 PM »

Cohn readjusted the model to account for Saccone overperforming in his own district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:13 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on March 13, 2018, 08:38:04 PM
So how was DDHQ able to get Westmoreland precinct data when the NYT wasn't? Bizarre.

They have their own volunteers that collect that data.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2018, 08:43:39 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2018, 08:51:03 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on March 13, 2018, 08:49:27 PM
Are the strongest R areas in Washington now in or still out?

Looks that way, but it looks like there are also some Democratic areas there too in the central and northeast part of the county.
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